Belgium’s political deadlock is over. Five parties struck a last-minute deal on Friday, following more than seven months of fraught negotiations. The new government, led by Flemish nationalist and former mayor of Antwerp Bart De Wever, was sworn in on Monday at the Royal Palace in Brussels.
Known as the Arizona coalition — a nod to the colours of the US state’s flag that correspond to the parties involved — it brings together parties from across Belgium’s entrenched linguistic and ideological divides.
On the Flemish side, it includes De Wever’s N-VA, the centrist Christian Democrats and the centre-left Forward. French-speaking Wallonia is represented by centrist Les Engagés and the centre-right Reformist Movement.
Reforms and budget cuts
Notably absent is Flemish Interest (VB), another nationalist party further to the right of De Wever's N-VA. When N-VA came out on top unexpectedly last June, De Wever bolstered his credibility with French-speaking parties by excluding the VB from coalition talks.
“By distancing itself, N-VA was able to take control of the formation talks and ultimately head the new coalition,” Dave Sinardet, a political scientist at the Free University of Brussels, told The Parliament.
At least for now, this gives Belgium the appearance of being the odd duck out in Europe. From its neighbour, The Netherlands, to Austria and many places in between, voters in European democracies are increasingly expressing frustration with status quo, to the benefit of far-right populist parties.
Belgium, which often finds itself as the butt of jokes about struggling to form coalitions, “seems to have succeeded in forming a coherent and stable government,” Sinardet said.
Still, many of its policies may end up resembling those gaining traction elsewhere in the EU. The government programme presented on Friday includes a sweeping package of domestic reforms and spending cuts. A central goal is reducing the budget deficit to below the EU’s required three per cent of GDP, which the government aims to do by the end of its term in 2029.
Getting there means structural changes in the labour market and for pensions, including limiting the duration of unemployment benefits and raising the age of retirement.
Right to work
De Wever's first day as prime minister coincided with an “informal retreat” of EU leaders, focusing largely on defence. He joined his 26 EU counterparts as well as NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in the Egmont palace in Brussels.
It was an inauspicious start for De Wever, given Belgium’s below-average defence spending. The country is one of the few NATO members still not committing at least two per cent of GDP to military expenditure. Increasing that is also part of the new government’s programme.
The coalition aims to hit the NATO spending guideline by 2029 — five years past the alliance's deadline — and go to 2.5 per cent by 2034.
“As the prime minister of a small country in financial difficulty, De Wever has every interest in advocating for a stronger European defence,” Hendrik Vos, a professor of European studies at the University of Ghent, told The Parliament.
From Eurosceptic to European pragmatist?
This set of circumstances makes De Wever an unexpected advocate for more integrated European defence — a departure for a man who, in 2018, wrote "more Europe is not the solution to everything” and dismissed the EU as “just a treaty.”
With the EU’s unmistakable lurch to the right, however, the bloc more closely aligns with his worldview. Like the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists Group it belongs to at the EU level, the N-VA has attacked the European Green Deal as a prime example of overregulation. Under De Wever’s leadership, Belgium is also set to follow many of its European partners on stricter migration policy.
Belgium aims to introduce border controls, joining Germany, France and the Netherlands that already have them in place.
“Being in control of your own borders might sound good, but in practice you are not going to win a lot by doing this,” Vos said, referring to effectively improving security and discouraging human trafficking.
“Border checks within Schengen end up ruffling feathers in Brussels,” he added.
To violate Schengen’s visa-free and borderless rules, a country must demonstrate a specific and limited need to impose border checks. In practice, however, the European Commission has tended to defer to its members, allowing for easy renewal of temporary restrictions.
A stronger EU
Months of tense negotiations among parties from across a wide swath of Belgium’s political spectrum led to an agreement that tries to offer something for everyone. Whatever De Wever’s lingering misgivings about European integration, the new government calls for stronger European leadership in the world and wants to boost European competitiveness. It also urges the EU to deepen the internal market by cutting trade barriers among member states.
Despite his Green Deal opposition, De Wever has said Belgium will remain committed to Paris Agreement climate targets.
De Wever also joins the growing chorus of voices demanding structural reform for EU decision-making. He wants to scrap the requirement for unanimous agreement among the 27 members, replacing it with a qualified majority. That would allow policies to pass if they have the support of at least 55 per cent of member states representing 65 per cent of the EU population.
Belgium wants to see the European Commission take a stronger stance against member states that violate EU law, including revoking voting rights and other sanctions.
That’s a shot at Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s, which the Commission has tussled with for years. It’s a position that helps De Wever distinguish himself from European voices further to his right, as he balances his regional pride with the practicalities of the prime minister’s office.
“Just as he must now embrace the Belgian national state as a Flemish nationalist, he must also demonstrate statesmanship at the European level as a coalition leader,” says Sinardet.