The leader of Bosnia’s Serbian enclave appears to have no intention of backing down, risking an escalation in ethnic tensions. He ignored a summons from Bosnian state prosecutors, who are investigating him for allegedly undermining the country’s constitutional order.
“Serbs no longer submit to inquisitions,” Milorad Dodik said yesterday, considering the state’s a political witch hunt.
Last week, Dodik was sentenced in absentia to one year in prison for defying rulings from the international High Representative who oversees the peace process that brought an end to inter-ethnic warfare there in the 1990s. The country is divided into a Bosniak-Croat Federation and Serb-led Republika Srpska, with a weaker central authority in Sarajevo.
The verdict, issued by a court in Sarajevo, also bars Dodik, the president of Republika Srpska, from political office for six years. In response, Dodik banned state-level security and judicial bodies, which authorities allege is tantamount to passing separatist laws that violate the constitutional order.
“He’s moving towards legal secession. Violence could be precipitated out of that,” Kurt Bassuener, a senior associate at Democratization Policy Council, a think tank in Sarajevo, told The Parliament.
The political crisis is a culmination of a 2023 indictment against Dodik for enacting laws that disregarded decisions made by both the country’s constitutional court and Christian Schmidt, the High Representative. Schmidt retains sweeping executive powers under the 1995 Dayton Agreement, including the ability to impose or annul laws and dismiss officials.
Republika Srpska has long opposed these powers.
A fragile peace
Dayton ended the Bosnian War and divided Bosnia and Herzegovina into its two entities. EUFOR, an EU-led peacekeeping mission, remains in place to oversee security.
Dodik has been a dominant figure in Bosnian politics for decades, bringing with him the constant threat of secession.
“Ever since Dodik came to power, he has taken an aggressive tone towards the state and has consistently brandished the idea of separatism,” Bassuener said.
In front of thousands of supporters, Dodik dismissed the ruling as politically motivated and declared that Bosnia and Herzegovina “no longer exists.”
The tensions have raised concerns in Brussels, which has designated Bosnia and Herzegovina a candidate country for membership. The EU has urged Bosnia to implement key reforms in governance, judicial independence and anti-corruption measures before accession talks can formally begin.
The case against Dodik exposes how far the state is from making good on those calls. The legal system remains highly politicized, and enforcement mechanisms are weak. Dodik has been able to use these shortcomings to his advantage, some of which are a result of the deal that ended the war in the first place.
“The peace agreement stopped the bloodshed,” Bojan Sosic, the Bosnian ambassador to Sweden, told The Parliament. “But it also cemented the ethno-nationalist setup of the state.”
As a result, the post-war settlement created a tripartite presidency and a rigid system of ethnic quotas and veto powers. Intended to ensure balance, the structure has also fueled political gridlock, allowing nationalist leaders to block reforms and amass power.
“The current situation is merely a reflection of the many issues that have been ignored for far too long,” Sosic said.
Pro-Russian allies
Following the verdict, Serbia’s President Aleksander Vučić and Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán expressed support for Dodik. Both are known for opposing Brussels consensus and espousing ethno-nationalist sentiment that aligns with Dodik. All three are friendly with Russia, which echoed their condemnation of the verdict.
Amid confronting his own domestic unrest, Vučić convened a security council meeting in Belgrade and visited Banja Luka, which serves as the capital of Republika Srpska.
Hungary has sent 300 special police forces to Republika Srpska to hold joint training exercises with Bosnian Serbian police, which are effectively under Dodik’s control.
“Dodik has become Putin's most valuable player in the region because he's put all his cards with Russia and with Hungary,” Bassuener said. “They have been playing up the relationship between Serbs and Russians.”
Many ethnic Serbs feel a kinship with Russia, bonded by a common Orthodox faith. Russia also opposes NATO, which many Serbs resent for intervening militarily in the war-torn 1990s.
Western response
Dodik has refused to align Republika Srpska with Western sanctions against Russia following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Putin awarded Dodik one of Russia’s highest decorations in February 2024.
“Republika Srpska functions as a Russian proxy in the Western Balkans, a crucial battleground in Russia’s geopolitical rivalry with the West,” Velma Saric, the president of the Post-Conflict Research Center in Sarajevo, a peacebuilding organisation in Sarajevo, told The Parliament. “Russian support is vital to sustaining the separatist ambitions of the RS leadership.”
The United States and the United Kingdom have imposed sanctions on Dodik and his associates, citing corruption, destabilization and ties with Russia. The EU has refrained from following suit due to divisions among member states —Hungary most notably. Leading members of the European Parliament are now calling on the EU to “finally impose” targeted sanctions on Dodik and his allies.
With 1,100 troops in the country, EUFOR’s mandate remains limited, but any escalation could prompt calls for reinforcements at a time when the EU is grappling with its ability to project credible military power.
The military component can only be a stopgap in efforts to ease tensions in a country where ethnic strife has had catastrophic consequences. The balance of power between state authorities and those loyal to Dodik remains unclear, leaving the possibility of escalation wide open.
“International actors must now urgently work on mediated solutions to political and institutional blockages,” Saric said, “to protect citizens and strengthen institutions.”
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