Belgium is known for taking months to form a government coalition. Following federal elections in June, there was hope this time might be easier. Yet seven months on, the country is still without a government. The deadline, which Belgium’s King Philippe has already extended several times, is coming up.
The latest extension, to 31 January, came after Bart De Wever’s 17th trip to the monarch. As the head of the top party, he leads negotiations as formateur. If De Wever keeps coming up short, Belgians could go to the polls again.
The coalition talks are the country’s third longest. It comes as a surprise to many, as Belgian voters chose mostly centrist parties from its French- and Flemish-speaking regions.
Belgium, with its complex federal structure, “suddenly seemed governable,” Dave Sinardet, a political scientist at the Free University of Brussels, told The Parliament. “For the first time in a long time, there was an ideological congruence between the different parts of the country.”
The election winners include parties from the centre, centre-left, and centre-right—a rare alignment in recent history.
Five parties are looking to come to an agreement. De Wever’s New Flemish Alliance (N-VA) is a conservative and Flemish nationalist group that pulled off a surprise win over Flemish Interest, a far-right Flemish nationalist party. The other big winner was the French-speaking, liberal Reformist Movement (MR). The social-democratic Forward and centrist parties, CD&V and Les Engagés, are also involved in coalition talks.
If De Wever succeeds in stitching these parties into a government, he as prime minister will enjoy a comfortable majority of 82 seats out of 150 in the Belgian federal parliament. But budget and spending issues remain major obstacles.
Deadlines and deficits
The country’s budget deficit exceeds the European Union’s limit of three per cent of GDP. In late fall, the ratings agency Moody's downgraded its financial outlook for Belgium.
“The deficit is one of the main reasons why talks are moving so slow,” Nicolas Bouteca, a political scientist at the University of Ghent, told The Parliament. “When there is no money to spend and cuts have to be made, both left and right parties have little to show.”
Belgium was supposed to submit its budget to the European Commission months ago but requested two extensions. If it fails to meet a third extension, set for April, Belgium may be subjected to a rigid, four-year austerity plan — in contrast to a more flexible seven-year plan that allows room for reform and investment.
“A four-year trajectory would mean enormous cuts in healthcare and pensions. Forming a coalition with parties that are up for that is a mission impossible,” Bouteca said.
Belgium also risks penalties under the EU’s excessive deficit procedure. In May, the Commission will assess whether sufficient progress has been made to bring the country’s deficit in line with EU rules. If the Commission decides it hasn’t, Belgium could be fined, face restrictions on support from the European Investment Bank or have European funds withheld.
The ‘supernote’ of last resort
In a final push effort to get the coalition deal done, De Wever presented the other parties a socioeconomic "supernote" — a take-it-or-leave-it proposal that was not much different from where all sides began talks in June.
The proposal includes a budget cut of 23 billion euros by 2029, which would be one of the largest restructuring plans in Belgian history. That could be enough to push the federal deficit below three per cent by 2030, though the total national deficit, including those of the regions, would remain well above the EU requirement.
Cuts would come mainly from pensions and social security.
“This puts the Forward party in a very difficult position, as it needs something to sooth its supporters,” says Bouteca.
Under pressure from its more left-wing members, Foward’s leaders want to include an additional tax on high earners to help cushion the shortfall. MR opposes the move. Meanwhile, De Wever’s party had to put its top priority— Flemish independence — on hold, though he has said he would advocate for it as prime minister.
Tough choices — or new elections
While social programs are on the chopping block, defence spending may get a boost. Among NATO members, Belgium’s military budget is one of the lowest — below the 2% of GDP guideline.
“Other NATO members also have concerns about welfare policy,” Bouteca said. “Belgium must comply with its international obligations.”
With the deadline looming at the end of the month, no party seems ready to further compromise their positions. If the talks ultimately fail, it could be a chaotic springtime. Other coalition constellations are possible, but even more difficult: more parties with less political overlap.
Fresh elections are also possible. That would give the far-right VB another shot at becoming Belgium’s largest party. Its party leader, Tom Van Grieken, is waiting in the wings, noting at a party New Year’s reception that "worldwide, nationalism has the wind in its sails."