Masoud Pezeshkian is saying all the right things. Since taking office on 28 July, Iran’s new president has wasted no time in making diplomatic overtures to the European Union. Those efforts run parallel to tensions running high along familiar fault lines — from Israel to nuclear development.
"Iran and the EU have a shared interest in promoting regional stability and security," Pezeshkian said in a news conference last month, specifying that he hoped to improve collaboration in areas including energy, transport and environmental protection.
Pezeshkian, whom voters selected to replace after his predecessor was killed in a helicopter crash in Azerbaijan, set a similar tone this month in phone calls with European leaders and European Council President Charles Michel.
"We have a shared responsibility to prevent war and promote peace," he said.
Whether those warm words translate into a more substantive relationship will depend on factors largely outside Pezeshkian’s control — and that of the EU.
Iran’s sponsorship of Hamas and Hizballah, which the EU in whole or in part classifies as terrorist organizations, could draw it into direct conflict with Israel, as Iran weighs a response to Israel’s latest suspected assassination on its territory. Diplomacy around Iran's nuclear program is approaching critical deadlines. On the human rights front, Iran’s harsh judicial system is a frequent target of EU criticism.
“I don’t see how [Pezeshkian] could implement any reforms even if he wanted to," Hossein Pourbagheri, a lecturer in Middle Eastern Studies at Leiden University in the Netherlands, told The Parliament.
Iranian presidency: from reformer to hardliner and back again
Pezeshkian’s predecessor, Ebrahim Raisi, was an ultra-conservative with little time for diplomacy with the West. He gained international notoriety as a judge in the 1980s, when he played a prominent role in mass executions of political prisoners. Many Iran watchers took his election as president, in 2021, as evidence of the Iranian political establishment turning away from the more moderate line of Hassan Rouhani, who preceded Raisi. Rouhani had only limited success in easing sanctions and normalising diplomatic ties with the West.
A year into Raisi’s presidency, in 2022, widespread street protests broke out in response to the death of Mahsa Amini, who was arrested by Iran’s religious police for how she wore her hijab, which is required of women in the Islamic republic.
Now, with Raisi’s untimely death, the pendulum has swung back towards the more moderate camp.
Iran’s nuclear programme remains a top point of contention. Iran insists it is for peaceful purposes only, but Western powers have their suspicions. Their goal is to prevent Iran from reaching a stage of nuclear development that would allow for a quick leap from civilian to military purposes.
The deal reached in 2015, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was meant to achieve just that, but unravelled in 2018 when the US withdrew from it. Under President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign, Iran was slapped with sanctions again. Seeing itself no longer beholden to the deal, Iran stepped up its nuclear enrichment activities.
That put the European parties to the deal — France, Germany and the United Kingdom — in an awkward position. Pezeshkian has said he’s willing to work with them, even without direct US involvement.
While the E3, as the European side of negotiations is collectively called, has expressed more willingness than the US to reengage in nuclear talks, they come with demands. That includes restoring camera surveillance at Iranian nuclear sites and cooperating fully with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
In December, representatives from the E3 said Iranian advancement “represents a lack of good will against de-escalation and is reckless behaviour in a tense regional context.”
Preventing regional war
Israel’s punishing response in Gaza to Hamas’ brutal attack on 7 Oct. adds another layer of complexity to EU-Iran diplomacy. The region is on a knife’s edge, as tit-for-tat exchanges between Israeli forces and Hizballah in Lebanon risk escalating into full-blown conflict.
Officially, Iran is “not looking to escalate regional tensions,” a foreign ministry spokesperson said, “but ought to punish Israel" after it likely killed Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’ top political figure, in Tehran on 31 July.
Pezeshkian has urged the EU to take a more balanced approach to the region — a shot at European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who had accused Tehran of "fuelling violence and instability."
In a phone call this week to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Pezeshkian said that European countries should “play an effective role in ending the Zionist genocide in Gaza instead of supporting this regime,” according to Iranian state media.
Germany is one of Israel’s closest allies, rejecting the term “genocide” and frequently defending Israel’s actions in Gaza, which have killed at least 40,000 people, according to Gaza health officials.
Balancing human rights with diplomacy
Despite Pezeshkian’s overtures to improving Iran’s dismal human rights record, it is difficult to see how much can change. A hard line against dissent and strict religious social codes, including on women’s dress, are core elements of the Islamic Republic since its establishment in 1979.
Josep Borrell, the EU’s top diplomat, has said the bloc’s "critical engagement" with Iran should be contingent on tangible improvements in human rights.
“It’s a matter of conflicting ideologies” between Iranian and Western political establishments, Mideast lecturer Pourbagheri said.
If past is prologue, a breakthrough in EU-Iran relations may be wishful thinking. Every time a president cast as a reformer takes office, such as Rouhani in 2013, hopes rise — only to be dashed by a convergence of geopolitical pressures.