Five years ago this week we, as MEPs from the United Kingdom, left Brussels for the last time. When we did, I hoped we could limit the damage of Brexit and that some of what the Leave campaign promised could come to pass — no matter how much I doubted it.
Now, it's clear that those hopes are impossible. Half a decade after the UK’s official withdrawal from the European Union, the only debate economists have over Brexit is how severe its impact on trade and investment has been. Even hardline Brexiteers admit that it hasn’t gone well. Businesses across the UK have become more vocal than they were in 2016 about the damage Brexit has caused.
What has changed radically since January 2020 is the political landscape. When Brexit took effect in January 2020, then Prime Minister Boris Johnson enjoyed a huge majority, which enabled him to shape the path forward for the UK. Now, he isn't even in parliament.
With Labour back in power, we’re starting to see the first tentative moves to fix the terrible damage wreaked by Johnson's botched Brexit deal.
That alone is reason to hope for closer ties. The political push appears backed by popular sentiment, with a recent survey showing voters in every British constituency favouring closer arrangements with the EU than the United States. Even those represented by Nigel Farage, Brexit’s no. 1 champion, take this view. Whether it’s a youth mobility scheme (59%), closer cooperation on crime and terrorism (68%) or improved customs arrangements (57%), survey after survey has shown a majority of Britons aren’t happy with the post-Brexit status quo.
The Labour government must take note of this sentiment. So far, it has only signalled a willingness to build closer ties, stopping short of concrete proposals. It seems to favour merely tinkering around the edges of our existing trade deal out of fear that substantive rapprochement, such as a customs union with the EU, would play into the hands of Farage's Reform UK party.
That, in turn, is locking the UK out of the very economic growth needed to reinvigorate the country’s public services. The chorus we hear over and over in the UK Parliament about lamenting the hole that the previous Conservative government left in our public finances means that there should be plenty of political will to improve trade with our neighbours.
Besides sentiment on any particular policy issue, public surveys suggest something else: Societal wounds that Brexit opened have slowly begun to heal. I hope they will continue to, so that at Brexit's ten-year anniversary we can discuss its pros and cons without a culture war. As for now, it at least feels like some of the heat has come out of the arguing.
I also hope that the UK and EU can work together on big, thorny, international issues. The world is more complex and dangerous than it was in 2020, which means we must strengthen trade and defence cooperation with our closest neighbour. Whether it’s Russia's war in Ukraine, migration or standing up to Donald Trump, the UK and EU are at their strongest when they work together — as neighbours.