Things are looking bleak for the European Union. To the east, China has begun taking over industries that European countries once dominated. To the west, a second Donald Trump administration for the US looks set to treat the EU as an adversary rather than a friend.
To add insult to injury, electricity prices that were once to the EU’s advantage have shot up since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. They remain at an unsustainable level for the power-intensive industries the bloc excels at.
Against this backdrop, Maroš Šefčovič has stepped into the role of European commissioner for trade and economic security. It is his job to help ensure the EU’s economic stability.
What is economic security? There is no universally agreed definition, but the concept is generally understood as securing resilient value chains that can withstand shocks, while developing tools to deter rivals from undermining one’s economic interests.
The EU is struggling to get off the ground on the first point. The bloc is jarringly dependent on third countries for critical raw materials, a key component for cleaner technologies. China has a chokehold on mining and refinement and is unafraid to use that to its strategic advantage. Recently, it cut off supply of certain materials to the US amid tightening export controls on semiconductor technology.
For Šefčovič, strengthening the resilience of raw material value chains will be a daunting task. Mining projects are unpopular and a wave of new mines opening across the bloc is unlikely. This means striking deals with mining industries in African countries and other regions, many of which are rife with human rights and labour abuses.
Securing raw materials is a major impetus behind the Mercosur free-trade deal with Latin America. Yet the deal has exposed another challenge to Šefčovič’s efforts: internal division. Not all member countries want the trade deal – France foremost among them.
There is similar disagreement when it comes to China. Hungary, for example, is a recipient of Chinese investment in the electric vehicle value chain and does not see any value in antagonising its bigger Asian partner. Germany, too, voted against imposing tariffs on subsidised Chinese EVs, fearing its auto industry would face retaliation.
The lack of unity underscores the difficulty Šefčovič will have in identifying and deploying real deterrence against EU rivals. Trade-offs between prosperity and economic security will only become more pronounced in the coming years.
In the recent Budapest Declaration, EU member states agreed that the “need for a unified response has never been more compelling.” Those words are unlikely to become action anytime soon.
No matter how much Šefčovič tries to prepare the EU for a faceoff with global rivals, deterrence ultimately requires unity, which the EU sorely lacks right now.