VICENZA, Italy – Despite its name, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has a strong Mediterranean dimension. Of its 32 members, nine face the Mediterranean Sea. The body of water connects Europe's fate with Africa's.
NATO members Italy and Spain are well aware of this geographic fact. Sicily is about 150 kilometres from the North African coast; the Canary Island of Fuerteventura is less than 100 kilometres west of Morocco.
Madrid considers the Mediterranean one of its foreign policy priorities and has a similar stance on Africa. The Italian government, for its part, uses the concept of "Wider Mediterranean” to refer not just to the area immediately around the Mediterranean, but spanning as far as the Middle East and Persian Gulf as well as the Horn of Africa and the Sahel. WiMedAf, for short, it represents an "area of primary importance in which Italian interests are projected and must be protected for reasons of national security."
Expanding the Wider Mediterranean definition even more, to cover the entire African continent, it becomes abundantly clear how important this part of the world is for the remainder of the 21st century.
The region is the starting point for migration waves that have pushed European politics to the right, with both state and non-state actors weaponizing the issue to push more extreme and divisive agendas.
European stability, African resources
Many countries here are already a vital supplier of gas, oil and raw materials for Europe. At least 40% of global maritime trade passes through WiMedAf waters. Beneath the waves, communication cables connect Europe to India and East Asia.
By 2050, Africa alone is expected to be home to 25% of the global population and skew younger than other parts of the world. Countries like Egypt, Nigeria and Ethiopia have booming populations and are only going to grow in geopolitical significance. New tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia, as a result of a defence deal between the former and Somalia, is an example of this.
It is no coincidence that China, Russia and other revisionist powers are increasingly active in the WiMedAf region. Their influence is growing. China’s is based on loans, investment and trade, although many governments in the region are beginning to realize that all that glitters is not gold; Russia’s is primarily one of hybrid warfare, such as the deployment of mercenaries, the massive use of disinformation, and supporting coups and subversive forces. This has been evident from Libya to the Sahel and in the Central African Republic.
As a result, NATO needs to focus more on what is going on there. The recent appointment of a Special Representative for the Southern Neighbourhood, Spanish diplomat Javier Colomina, was a step in this direction. The alliance launched two partnership forums for WiMedAf countries – the Mediterranean Dialogue and the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative – but that is not enough.
NATO should contribute to strengthening democracy and governance in the region by implementing ad hoc programmes in like-minded countries such as Cape Verde, Senegal, Mauritius and Ghana. It would also be important to strengthen ties with partly free countries such as Tunisia, Morocco, Kenya, Kuwait and Mozambique.
Cooperation could include improving accountability in defence establishments, sharpening counter-terrorism capabilities and bolstering defence against cyber-attacks, disinformation and other hybrid warfare. NATO could also extend assistance in the event of pandemics and natural disasters as well as help WiMedAf energy exporters improve security of their infrastructure. This would have a direct impact on European security, as many NATO European countries rely on these energy sources.
Getting assistance right
NATO already has a blueprint for this kind of work, as it cooperates in these areas with countries like Moldova, Ukraine, Mongolia and Pakistan.
NATO should increase its forward presence in the southern part of its territory just as it has already bolstered its eastern flank. This would send a strong message to Russia and other challengers, as well as serve a practical role in reducing drug and human trafficking. Finally, NATO should strengthen cooperation with the African Union and coordinate its efforts with those that the European Union has undertaken.
NATO should not be interested in stationing military assets in this region, as Russia has done in Syria, for example. Nor is this about "exporting democracy." Unlike the post-Cold War Partnership for Peace in eastern Europe, working more closely with African and Middle Eastern partners is not a roadmap to joining NATO — an option NATO's founding treaty forecloses on, anyway. France's military failure in West Africa should be a cautionary tale.
Instead, the focus must be on working with organizations and governments that lean towards the West and support the rules-based international order. The goal is democratic reform and knowledge exchange, not a new kind of European colonialism that supports corrupt regimes in exchange for their support of commercial and geopolitical interests.
If NATO were to focus more on the WiMedAf region, it could encourage a change of mindset. While it makes sense that NATO is preoccupied with its eastern flank, it does so at the risk of overlooking equally strategically important developments elsewhere. What the Indo-Pacific is becoming for the United States, WiMedAf will become for NATO's European members.
In shifting focus to what is happening there, increasing cooperation with like-minded countries and strengthening the military presence along its southern periphery, NATO can play a constructive role in the stability and prosperity of the region. Getting the strategy right could even prevent new and avoidable conflict.