The far right in the European Parliament has been assembled anew. Most of what was the Identity and Democracy group (ID) has morphed into Patriots for Europe. Its 84 MEPs will take their seats under the guidance of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who established it.
Almost overnight, the reconfiguration let the Patriots leapfrog Parliament’s other far-right force, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), making it the third-largest group in the EP. It got there by attracting prominent far-right players, such as Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom from the Netherlands and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally from France.
“It's a relative success for the Hungarian prime minister, because he was able to demonstrate again that he's a trendsetter. He influences key, high-level European processes,” Daniel Hegedüs, a senior fellow for central Europe at the German Marshall Fund, told The Parliament.
Founding the Patriots also ends Orbán’s own parliamentary exile. His Fidesz party has been without a group since 2021, when it quit the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) that was on the verge of kicking it out.
In all, an array of far-right and nationalist MEPs will hold 187 seats in the next Parliament. That includes 25 — two more than the minimum required to form a group — from another new faction calling itself Europe of Sovereign Nations. It is made up mostly of MEPs from Alternative for Germany (AfD), which was booted from ID before the June elections for being too toxic.
The Patriots might be third, but the group is still far behind the EPP, with 188 seats, and the 136 from the centre-left Socialists & Democrats (S&D). The Patriots make up about 12 per cent of the 720 seats. Orbán’s Fidesz has 11 of them.
“With that proportion, they would certainly not be in the situation to be able to block anything,” Hegedüs said.
No change to ‘cordon sanitaire’
Greens and liberal Renew, though diminished in last month’s elections, are likely to join forces with the EPP and S&D to enforce the cordon sanitaire — a catch-all term for containing the far right.
It remains unclear to what extent that 'cordon' applies to the ECR, which the EPP has expressed some willingness to work with. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, a top EPP official, might need ECR’s support to get a second term. She’s come under fire for normalizing the ECR, but Hegedüs said it could also help divide the far-right camp.
The ECR may get to chair some parliamentary committees, a position of power other groups will most likely deny to the Patriots when voting take place later this month.
That has the Patriots crying foul.
“I want to remind that we represent millions of European citizens that have the right to be heard,” a Patriots spokesperson said at a news conference on Friday, adding that the cordon sanitaire is not “against us, against our group. It’s a cordon sanitaire against millions of European citizens, and it’s very undemocratic and our group hopes it’s not going to be applied.”
Ukraine defenders vs. Putin sympathizers
Policy differences within the group could also reduce its power. One major issue is support for Russia over Ukraine, amid Moscow's ongoing war of aggression in the country. Although neither country is mentioned in the group’s manifesto, the Patriots say the group is “committed to peace and dialogue, while ready to defend itself against any threat.”
Orbán’s sympathies for Russian President Vladimir Putin are well known, underscored by a recent trip to Moscow that sparked criticism from other EU leaders. Spain’s Vox, which switched from the ECR, has positioned itself as rather pro-Ukraine. Wilders reiterated support for Ukraine in a post announcing his party was joining the Patriots.
“From that point of view, I believe that this group itself will not always be on the same page, which of course also reduces its influence,” Philipp Lausberg, a policy analyst with the European Policy Centre, a Brussels-based think tank, told The Parliament.
Migration is likely a different story, with widespread agreement across the far right on tightening borders that could see a convergence with the ECR and Europe of Sovereign Nations.
Where the Patriots' influence may hold sway
The Patriots may have better luck outside parliament, with the “opportunity to exert influence through the council,” Hegedüs said, referring to the European Council on which national leaders like Orbán sit and the Council of the EU, which Hungary currently chairs.
Then there is power at the national level. Parties belonging to the Patriots that govern member states might rise this year. Austria will hold legislative elections in September. The far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) is currently leading the polls there at about 28 per cent.
“It's a source of influence, even if they are definitely far below a blocking minority,” Hegedüs said.