Belarus is widely considered the last dictatorship on the doorstep of the European Union. President Alexander Lukashenko has ruled the country since 1994 and is set to begin his seventh consecutive term, following an election on 26 January.
The vote is hardly free or fair, but to keep up democratic appearances, four other candidates have been approved to run. They are all loyal to Lukashenko. Meanwhile, prominent opposition figures remain imprisoned or in exile.
Relations between Belarus and the EU have deteriorated since the disputed 2020 presidential election. The main opposition candidate, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, fled the country, while state security forces unleashed a violent crackdown on protesters contesting the result. Tensions further escalated in 2021, when a Ryanair flight was forced to land so Belarusian authorities could arrest a dissident journalist.
Belarus’ support for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, including allowing Russian troops to use its territory to launch military operations, has further strained ties. The EU accuses Belarus of “weaponising” migration by pushing asylum seekers into the EU as a way of sowing political discord at a time the bloc has soured on refugees and other immigrants.
The EU has imposed sanctions on Belarusian officials and state-owned enterprises, as well as against a range of goods and technologies. Belarusian airlines have been banned from using EU airspace and airports.
In the lead-up to the presidential election, Lukashenko’s government has undertaken measures seemingly aimed at appeasing its Western critics and gaining legitimacy. This includes the release of 115 political prisoners.
Approximately 1,300 political prisoners are still detained, leading human rights organisations to call these actions insufficient and primarily symbolic. From exile in the EU, Tsikhanouskaya has urged the international community to reject the election results.
In a Q&A with The Parliament, Anaïs Marin, a former UN special rapporteur on human rights in Belarus, discussed what's next for ‘Europe’s last dictatorship.’
The following interview has been edited for length and clarity.
What are your expectations of the elections in Belarus?
Alexander Lukashenko will be re-elected. The regime has eliminated any possibility of unexpected developments. There aren’t any serious contenders that could challenge the current president.
The real question will be the turnout because so many people have already left the country and have been disenfranchised. Belarusians abroad are now not allowed to cast their ballots because there are no more polling stations in the embassies around the world.
Are you expecting protests afterwards, much like the ones we saw in 2020?
I don't expect any post-electoral protests in Belarus. Lukashenko wants this round of elections to be the exact opposite of 2020, when we saw mass protests around the country. He wants to turn the page and move on, and has taken the appropriate policy and security measures.
I do expect manifestations and marches everywhere else in Europe on Sunday. My recommendation to protestors would be to wear a mask and sunglasses because if they end up in a picture or on a video, it can be used to blackmail friends or family in Belarus.
Lukashenko has been releasing political prisoners over the past couple of weeks. Is this a sign of democratic reforms?
It’s not. It’s very important that Western countries see through his attempt to lift sanctions by releasing political prisoners. This is not Lukashenko opening up his government for political opposition. These people have been held in very difficult, inhumane, cruel conditions — many of them for political reasons. They are now being used as currency. As a former elections observer, I can objectively say that the elections don’t meet the international standards for free, fair and transparent elections. Repression has continued over the past years, which includes purging the civic space from all NGOs and civil society organisation. Independent human rights organisations, which could have served as democracy watchdogs, are all gone.
Civil and political liberties have been completely eradicated since 2020 and repression has increased immensely. The criminalisation of political dissent, which is being prosecuted with very long prison sentences, has basically pushed all opposition either to exile, self-censorship or prison. Belarus is resembling a totalitarian regime more and more each day.
Are opposition figures in exile also at risk?
The regime’s repression has taken a transnational dimension. Belarussian security agents don’t have the means of the Russian KGB to threaten and target people abroad, but nonetheless, there is growing evidence of intimidation attempts and corruption.
Belarusians in exile are in a desperate situation. The government has discontinued the delivery of consular services for Belarusians abroad. It means that they cannot renew their passport, they cannot declare the birth of a child born in exile, and they cannot vote in these elections. So they don’t have a voice.
Is Belarus a strategic threat to the EU?
Belarus is on the edge of the EU. There are significant problematic bilateral issues with member states, for instance with Poland or Lithuania. Belarus has been weaponising migrant flows from third countries to destabilise EU borders and to create chaos and division within Polish or Lithuanian societies.
Belarus is not a belligerent yet [in Ukraine], but that could change. There are going to be military exercises with Russia. Depending on how peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine turn out, Putin could find himself in a position to launch a new attack on Kyev, again using the territory of Belarus to invade. The country also hosts Russian nuclear weapons.
Are EU sanctions effective?
There are some absurdities that exist in the sanctions system, which are damaging for many Belarusians. The blanket visa ban, by which no Belarusian can travel to Europe, unrightfully affects the population and plays into the regime’s agenda.
Currently, we are back to a de facto Iron Curtain and this is exactly the contrary to what should happen. If Europe wants to win the hearts and minds of Belarusians and prove it’s not the enemy, it should take a good look at these sanctions.
What could the EU do otherwise?
Visa-free travel and open borders is the main instrument of seduction that the EU can have towards Belarus and its citizens. This is the best way you can show how it’s better to live in a democracy.
Europe needs to take a stronger stance because Lukashenko could outsmart us again. He's been in power for 30 years and knows the weaknesses of the sanctions regime. He knows that there are some EU member states, which are also more authoritarian, that might prove easier to work with.
Europe needs to signal it wants to work on good neighbourhood relations while asking for democratic reforms at the same time. The EU needs to continue supporting and preparing the Belarusian opposition in exile. This way they are ready to take over when the moment comes and can manage the transition of power in a peaceful and constructive way.