Romania looks set to have a new government, even as its next president remains unclear. Four parties, which have little more in common than their views on the European Union and interest in blocking the far-right's path to national power, have negotiated a quick coalition.
The sense of urgency comes as Romania faces political limbo following last week's ruling by its constitutional court, which cancelled the results of the first round of the presidential election. The emergence of additional evidence of Russian interference led the court to reverse an earlier ruling letting the results stand.
Romanian authorities allege that Calin Georgescu, a relatively obscure far-right candidate, unlawfully benefitted from a Russian-backed TikTok campaign ahead of the 24 Nov. presidential vote, which catapulted him to unexpected victory. In a separate investigation, the European Commission has ordered TikTok to preserve records that could indicate whether the social media platform violated EU content moderation rules.
A redo of the election may not happen until early next year. That leaves Romania in an unprecedented situation, which has shaken the confidence of its public and allies.
“Romania is a stable, safe and solid country,” Klaus Iohannis, the outgoing president, said in a televised address on Friday, hoping to ease concerns about the fate of his country.
Russian sympathies in strategic spot
Western leaders could do without political chaos in another EU and NATO member. Bordering the Black Sea and Ukraine, Romania is strategically important for the Euro-Atlantic military alliance and hosts thousands of its troops. That includes a French-led battlegroup and the Mihail Kogălniceanu base, which may be NATO’s largest by 2030.
That's why Georgescu’s first-round win, despite polls putting him at 5%, came as an unwelcome surprise. He has expressed both Eurosceptic and pro-Russian views, but has also tapped into local frustrations.
Romania has the EU’s highest share of people at risk of poverty, which post-pandemic inflation exacerbated. Corruption scandals have tarnished the uneasy coalition between the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the National Liberal Party (PNL).
Both would stay in power as part of the freshly negotiated, four-way coalition deal, which followed parliamentary elections on 1 Dec. That result saw the PSD score first, though a far-right alliance, when combined, will take up more seats in total.
“Georgescu was perceived as a political outsider, not linked to the PSD-PNL ruling alliance, which did not stop inflation and the rising energy and grocery prices,” Dragus Petrescu, a professor of comparative politics at Bucharest University, told The Parliament.
Romania’s budget deficit is one of the EU’s highest, meaning the country could be in for painful spending cuts, tax hikes or both — often fertile ground for growing populist sentiment.
Court vs. votes
There is little dispute that Georgescu made the most of TikTok to get voters to the polls, including new or infrequent voters. About half of the country’s 19 million people have a TikTok account, and his posts advocating conservative Christian viewpoints received some 5.7 million likes.
What is in question is whether that online outreach violated any laws.
“The kind of visibility that Georgescu got in a very short period of time seems to indicate that this was inauthentic, coordinated behaviour,” Oana Popescu-Zamfir, the director of the GlobalFocus Center, a security policy think tank in Bucharest, told The Parliament.
Georgescu has denied he spent any money on the campaign, calling the decision to annul his first-round victory an “organised coup.”
Expert Forum, a Romanian think tank, along with evidence submitted by Romanian investigators refute his claim, alleging that his campaign secretly paid a network of influencers.
Georgescu’s top opponent, the centre-right liberal Elena Lasconi, also condemned the court’s annulment, calling it “illegal, amoral and crushes the very essence of democracy.”
She may end up as the candidate centrist parties get behind. Mircea Geoana, a former foreign minister, called Lasconi the “only remaining pro-EU and pro-NATO candidate.”
That seems to reflect growing disillusionment among sectors of the public, which Lasconi may be trying to appeal to and pull away from Georgescu. In the now-nullified first round, he won around half of Romania’s European diaspora vote. His Eurosceptic views did not seem to bother many of them.
Despite the court’s stated effort to protect rule of law, "a part of Romania now believes that this could actually be a plot to undermine Georgescu’s chances to become president,” Popescu-Zamfir said.
It is unclear if Georgescu will run again whenever the vote is rescheduled. However the investigation turns out, the damage may already be done.
“Any sort of foreign interference in the democracy of a member state is interference in European affairs,” Pepescu-Zamfir said. “The EU now has the responsibility to take appropriate policy measures.”