Ursula von der Leyen may not have gone public about her plan to seek a second term at the helm of the European Commission, but it’s no secret around town that she’s just waiting for the best moment to announce her bid as the lead candidate of the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP).
The official news might need to wait until next week when Germany’s Christian Democratic Union, the party from which von der Leyen originally hails, holds an election rally in Berlin that’s widely expected to serve as a launching pad for the Commission president’s re-election bid. But for those closely watching whether the current Commission chief is angling to extend her stay at the Berlaymont headquarters for five more years, look no further than her calendar.
Be it the Mediterranean island of Lampedusa after yet another major arrival of migrants, the northeastern city of Forlì (twice) following a disastrous flood, or Rome for the launch of a new development plan for Africa, von der Leyen appears to be spending a lot of time in Italy. The trips have, on the surface, all been tied to the Commission’s institutional priorities. But they’ve also provided an opportunity for von der Leyen to nurture her relationship with the country’s far-right prime minister, Giorgia Meloni.
“One could say that she spends more time in Italy than in Brussels these days,” joked Nathalie Tocci, the director of the Rome-based Istituto Affari Internazionali think tank and a former advisor of two European Union diplomatic chiefs.
Since her surprise appointment as the head of the EU’s executive body in summer 2019, the former German defence minister has always been very respectful of the role of Member States – some critics argue even too much. With the horse-trading over the EU’s top jobs about to start all over again in just a few months’ time – coupled with a weakened coalition government in her home country – von der Leyen knows she will need both a broad consensus among national leaders and firm support in the European Parliament to nab another term in office.
Meloni is instrumental to both ends. The main heir of a post-fascist party and the head of the most right-wing government in Italy’s post-war history, she had in 2020 reinvented herself as a prominent EU figure after becoming the president of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) – a right-wing parliamentary group in which her party, Fratelli d’Italia, is a powerful member.
She was once a staunch EU opponent, who deemed the bloc’s institutions to be “rotten to the core,” and campaigned for Italy’s exit from the eurozone. But since becoming prime minister in 2022, Meloni has found herself an unlikely power player at the European level – a role that could enable her allies to move from shouting eurosceptic slogans to implementing right-wing policies across the bloc.
Migration is one policy area in which Meloni is clearly influencing politics at the European level. "We will decide who comes to the European Union, and under what circumstances. Not the smugglers,'' von der Leyen declared in September, appearing next to the Italian prime minister after touring Lampedusa. She was quick to borrow Meloni’s own narrative – one evoking the image of a “Fortress Europe.”
Polls show a major surge of right-wing parties in the EU, and von der Leyen sees Meloni as a solid ally in her bid for re-election
“Polls show a major surge of right-wing parties in the EU, and von der Leyen sees Meloni as a solid ally in her bid for re-election,” says Matteo Albania, a Brussels-based political commentator and the EPP’s former head of communications. This would not be the first time that the German politician has developed a strategic relationship with a popular Italian prime minister ahead of a crucial vote, as she did five years ago with anti-establishment populist Giuseppe Conte. It was Conte who rallied the support of 14 MEPs of his Five Star Movement in the EU chamber, helping von der Leyen secure her slim majority by just nine votes.
Reaching out for help this time, however, might come with new risks, Tocci warns: “Meloni is a sort of a pro-EU Dr Jekyll and anti-EU Mr Hyde. We can see a mismatch between the way she is perceived in Brussels and across Europe and the Italian reality,” where she often bashes EU policies, ranging from the ecological transition to financial stability. “So far, she has succeeded in her balancing act, but we do not know how long it will last,” Tocci says.
At the same time, with the centre-right more radicalised in recent years, Meloni will have significant leverage in closed-door negotiations with other EU leaders and von der Leyen alike, Albania argues. It’s leverage that will be “useful for her not only to claim a major portfolio for the Italian commissioner, but perhaps even to bargain a post of executive vice president for ECR.”