The European Parliament gathered on Tuesday for a special session to mark 1,000 days since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In a video address, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked European policymakers for their support, while acknowledging that the year to come “must be the year of peace.”
Given political shifts anticipated in 2025, from Berlin to Brussels to Washington, it is anyone's guess how that peace might come about or what it might look like if it does.
Support from Ukraine's two biggest backers — the United States and Germany — looks shaky, despite promises otherwise. At great cost and with the addition of North Korean troops, Russian forces are chipping away at Ukrainian positions. Pressure is building to reach some kind of negotiated settlement.
“We’re going to work very hard on Russia and Ukraine,” President-elect Donald Trump said last week. “It’s gotta stop.”
If Trump pushes Ukraine to cut a deal, reversing US policy that only Ukraine can decide when it does that, it could make battlefield developments more dependent on political manoeuvring. Russian attacks appear to be on the rise since Trump's re-election.
Escalation as negotiating tactic?
Trump's win has also shaken Ukraine's backers into taking more action. Outgoing US President Joe Biden has authorized the use of American-supplied weapons when striking Russian territory — a request Ukrainian officials have been making for much of the war. Biden has also approved sending Ukraine anti-personnel mines.
In 2022, the Biden administration committed to adhering to the international ban on such mines, though did not officially join the global convention.
“The North Korean presence in the conflict was seen as a clear provocation by Washington,” Ria Laenen, senior lecturer in East European Politics at the University of Louvain, told The Parliament. “But it is also an undeniable choice of action before Trump takes over.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused Washington of trying to escalate the conflict, repeating Russia's response to almost every effort Ukraine's partners have taken to support the country's defence. Also heard before: A rustling of the nuclear weapons sabre.
While the military moves play out, diplomatic ones are taking shape — to mixed reviews. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s hour-long phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday was a first between a major Western power and the Kremlin in two years.
Scholz urged Putin to engage in “serious negotiations” while stressing Germany’s commitment to supporting Kyiv “as long as necessary.” Putin emphasized that peace would have to include “the new territorial realities,” a reference to Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine.
Peace or appeasement?
“The timing after the American elections was no coincidence,” Laenen said, referring to the call.
Putin's follow up to Scholz's message of a "just and lasting” peace may also have been no coincidence: A missile and drone attack on Ukrainian infrastructure on Sunday — the largest such assault in months.
The timing, regardless if intentional, gave reason for Scholz's critics around the EU to make their displeasure known.
“No one will stop Putin with phone calls,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on X.
Ukraine’s Foreign Affairs Minister, Andrii Sybiha, accused Scholz of “appeasement,” a throwback to Allied powers’ softball handling of Adolf Hitler in the 1930s. "We need peace through strength,” he said, echoing Zelenskyy's outreach to Trump after his victory — a phrase that has defined the Republican party's foreign policy, especially towards Russia, since Ronald Reagan.
“The phone call had no clear positive effect on the situation, but it was advantageous for Putin’s standing,” Klaus Wittmann, a retired German brigadier general, told The Parliament. “In combination with the air attack on Ukrainian infrastructure, it polarized European leaders, who already had increasingly different views on Ukraine-policy.”
While Scholz pushed back against the criticism and reemphasized his support for Ukraine, he has also maintained his refusal to send German-made cruise missiles to Ukraine.
No unified EU position on Ukraine
No other country providing these kinds of weapons has so far followed America's lead to remove restrictions on how to use them. The UK and France may consider doing so, but even if not, other officials think the move “might open up other policies previously considered impossible,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said at this week's Foreign Affairs Council meeting in Brussels.
That is hardly a consensus view. The EU is increasingly split between those who say Ukraine needs support "for as long as it takes” and those more dependent on good relations with Russia.
Striking targets deep inside Russia is “a means to disrupt or delay peace talks completely,” Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico said in a statement. Hungary’s foreign minister, Péter Szijjártó, called it an escalation. His boss, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, was roundly criticized when he visited Moscow in July for his own kind of peace effort.
“In this new political situation, the division between European leaders is becoming clearer than ever. As elected officials, they all have to reckon with an electorate.” Laenen said. “This is something Vladimir Putin and his autocratic regime don’t have to deal with.”
Scholz may know that better than anyone right now. Having ended his government coalition the day that Trump claimed victory, he faces new elections in February — and an uphill battle to stay in the chancellery.
“He aims to secure votes of people who might vote for parties advocating peace negotiations with Russia and a cessation of Ukrainian armament,” Alena Epifanova, a research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations, told The Parliament.
This approach allows Scholz to draw a clear contrast with his Christian Democrat rivals, who are way ahead in polls. The CDU leader, Friedrich Merz, has criticized Scholz for refusing to deliver long-range missiles to Ukraine.
“Scholz can argue that he at least tries to bring Putin to the negotiation table while other parties demand more weapons,” Epifanova said.
Those weapons, however, could be a bargaining chip in coming to the table. Wittmann, the retired German army general, sees Russian attacks as an effort to be in the strongest possible position if peace talks do come to fruition.
Ukraine will no doubt be trying to do the same.
“If we give Ukraine the means to hit those targets, then even a layman could see what a difference that could make,” he said.