Giorgia Meloni wants the world to know that she’s a close ally to US President Donald Trump — positioning herself as the bridge-builder that an increasingly isolated Europe desperately needs. But Trump’s resolve to slap crippling tariffs on the EU might put the vaunted friendship to the test.
Trump last week announced immediate 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico before then granting some repreives, while doubling recently imposed tariffs on China to 20%. He also granted automakers a one-month reprieve a day, adding to the confusion among trading partners.
The moves came a week after the president reiterated plans to target European goods with taxes, accusing the EU of being designed to “screw’’ the US.
That leaves Meloni – whose brand of far-right nationalism has largely aligned with Trump’s worldview – in a tight spot, balancing between pleasing her powerful ally and fighting back against measures that are at risk of decimating her country’s export-reliant economy.
With exports totaling €626 billion, according to a 2023 Italian Trade Agency report, the manufacturing nation stands to be the EU’s second hardest-hit country after Germany, if tariffs enter into force. The US is Italy’s top export destination outside of the EU, with up to 10.7% of products across sectors sold there each year, estimates from Confindustria show.
"Replacing the US is unthinkable because they are the first export country outside the EU," Barbara Cimmino, Confindustria's vice president, told The Parliament. She added that Italy’s best bet to navigate potential US tariffs would be to strengthen trade with other countries from the Mercosur and Gulf regions.
Still, Meloni, who leads the far-right Brothers of Italy party, insisted last week that Trump’s trade policies don’t pose a conflict for relations with Washington. “My priority is always the Italian national interest, and I believe it’s in the Italian national interest to avoid any divisions with the West,’’ she told a national television program.
But for Nathalie Tocci, director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali think tank, Meloni is facing a textbook example of the “sovereigntist contradiction.” Tocci pointed out that “there’s a strong ideological convergence with the MAGA movement” and Meloni’s party. But she added that Italy's economic interests are not compatible with those of a Trump-led US that's pushing for ‘Buy American.’
"If the heart is prompting Meloni to side with the nationalist leader, the mind is recalling her that Italy’s strategic interests remain deeply tied to the EU,” Tocci said.
Rhetoric meets reality
A coalescence of political affiliation, cultural influences, and common friends and foes have made Meloni and Trump natural allies. Ahead of Trump’s inauguration, the Italian prime minister was the only EU leader to pay a visit to his Mar-a-Lago Florida residence, during which Trump called Meloni a “fantastic woman” and praised her for having “taken Europe by storm.”
But regardless of how warm the relationship between Meloni and Trump might be, Italy’s exporting edge makes the country a major offender in the eyes of the president. With a trade surplus vis-a-vis the United States topping €42.1 billion in 2023, according to Eurostat data, Italy was the fourth largest exporter to the US — a fact Trump sees as an “atrocity.’’
“In Trump’s mind, that makes you a target,” Uri Dadush, a non-resident fellow at the Bruegel think tank, said of countries that have a large trade surplus with the US.
Italy’s exposure to the American market means the country is particularly vulnerable to tariffs that could make its products uncompetitive with US consumers. As the threat looms, Italian industry is on edge. “It is an alarm that has been ringing for a while now but here it rings even louder towards Europe,” Emmanuele Orsini, president of Confindustria, the industry trade association, wrote in a statement last week. "It is a dark hour," Orsini said.
According to Coldiretti, the Italian farmers’ association, a 25% tariff could make Italian food exports up to €2 billion more expensive for Americans shoppers, leading to an inevitable drop in exports. With an expected increase of €500 million, wine is set to be the most affected, followed by olive oil, pasta and cheese.
However, Meloni insists that dialogue with Washington is still possible, betting that her relationship with Trump will prove an asset. “Trade wars serve no one,” she said on Italian national television, pledging to address the issue directly with the US president.
But for Tocci, Meloni’s reluctance to antagonise Trump is a doomed strategy. “It’s an illusion to build bridges where none exist,” she argued. “This administration isn’t indifferent to the EU — it seeks to weaken or even dismantle it.”
Since taking office, Trump has announced plans to impose sweeping tariffs expected to cost the bloc billions, accused Europe of exploiting the US via its trade deficit, and most recently suspended military aid to Ukraine — leaving the EU, for the moment at least, to shoulder rising costs alone.
Italy’s limited sway
Faced with Trump’s tariff threats, Meloni’s room for maneuvering is limited — at least if Rome follows the rules.
As an EU member, Italy has ceded control over trade policy to Brussels, meaning it can only apply political pressure on the European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, to ensure Italian interests remain central to the EU’s response. And so far, Brussels’ strategy has been to seek de-escalation, swiftly offering to ramp up gas and weapons imports and lower the bloc’s existing tariffs on US cars.
A last resort measure for Rome could be to promise more investment in the US, but that would have negative implications for the Italian economy, Bruegel’s Dadush explained. “If they do so, they invest less in Italy — and Italy needs to grow,” he said.
Whether these openings will be enough to temper Trump’s ire remains uncertain, although recent developments increasingly point to a trade war. “It certainly seems that we’re moving in that direction,” a Commission official, who asked to remain anonymous, told The Parliament.
Sweet deals and trojan horses
But rules are made to be broken.
Despite Meloni’s repeated reassurances that a united EU is essential for trade negotiations with the US, observers widely expect Trump to try to lure his closest allies in Europe with the promise of favourable treatment in order to fracture the bloc’s unity.
"Trump will likely offer what he sees as his Trojan horses a sweet deal — one that may bring short-term benefits but risks undermining the EU competence in the long run," said Tocci. She added that Italy would play a central role in the EU’s trade negotiations with the US, given that its position as the EU’s fourth-largest economy makes it one of the biggest potential losers.
While the details of the "sweet deal" remain unclear, Tocci suggested it would likely involve specific exemptions granted to select countries. One plausible scenario for Italy, Tocci explained, would be for Trump to exempt Italian premium food products such as parmesan and wine, which would likely prove tempting for Meloni.
Quizzed about this scenario, the Commission remains convinced that a fragmented response to the tariff threat would be a major victory for Trump. As the Commission official put it, “the strategic value of presenting a united EU front is very clear.”
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