Giorgia Meloni wants the world to know that she’s a close ally to US President Donald Trump — positioning herself as the bridge-builder that an increasingly isolated Europe desperately needs. But Trump’s resolve to slap crippling tariffs on the EU could put the vaunted friendship to the test.
On 2 April — a day Trump had deemed “Liberation Day” — the president announced baseline 10% tariffs on nearly all US trading partners and a 20% tariff on goods made in the EU, which he had previously accused of being designed to “screw’’ the US. The new levies came on top of 25% tariffs on EU steel and aluminium and a 25% tariff on cars imposed by the Trump administration earlier this year.
But a week later — less than 24 hours after the new tariffs took effect — Trump reversed course and implemented a 90-day pause on tariffs above the 10% baseline for nearly all trading partners, with the exception of China. That still leaves the EU to immediately contend with a 10% levy on all its exports to the US, in addition to the steel, aluminium and auto tariffs.
Regardless of the rate, the escalating trade fight leaves Meloni — whose brand of right-wing nationalism has largely aligned with Trump’s worldview — in a tight spot, balancing between pleasing her powerful ally and fighting back against measures that are at risk of decimating her country’s export-reliant economy.
Still, Meloni took a harder line than many expected following Trump’s so-called Liberation Day, calling the tariffs “wrong” and “not in the interests of either party” — her first public criticism of the president’s policies — but still reiterated her willigness to reach a deal with the US.
The Italian prime minister is now slated to visit the White House for an "official working visit" on 17 April — the first European leader to meet Trump since the tariff regime was announced last week.
With exports totalling €626 billion, according to a 2023 Italian Trade Agency report, the manufacturing nation stands to be the EU’s second hardest-hit country after Germany. The US is Italy’s top export destination outside of the EU, with up to 10.7% of products across sectors sold there each year, estimates from Italian industry association Confindustria show.
"Replacing the US is unthinkable because they are the first export country outside the EU," Barbara Cimmino, Confindustria's vice president, told The Parliament. She added that Italy’s best bet to navigate potential US tariffs would be to strengthen trade with other countries from the Mercosur and Gulf regions.
Still, Meloni, who leads the far-right Brothers of Italy party, insisted in March that Trump’s trade policies don’t pose a conflict for relations with Washington. “My priority is always the Italian national interest, and I believe it’s in the Italian national interest to avoid any divisions with the West,’’ she told a national television programme.
But for Nathalie Tocci, director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali think tank, Meloni is facing a textbook example of the “sovereigntist contradiction.” Tocci pointed out that “there’s a strong ideological convergence with the MAGA movement” and Meloni’s party. But she added that Italy's economic interests are not compatible with those of a Trump-led US that's pushing for ‘Buy American.’
"If the heart is prompting Meloni to side with the nationalist leader, the mind is recalling her that Italy’s strategic interests remain deeply tied to the EU,” Tocci said.
Meloni & Trump: Natural allies
A coalescence of political affiliation, cultural influences, and common friends and foes have made Meloni and Trump natural allies. Ahead of Trump’s January inauguration, the Italian prime minister was the only EU leader to pay a visit to his Mar-a-Lago Florida residence, during which Trump called Meloni a “fantastic woman” and praised her for having “taken Europe by storm.”
But regardless of how warm the relationship between Meloni and Trump might be, Italy’s exporting edge makes the country a major offender in the eyes of the president. With a trade surplus vis-a-vis the United States topping €42.1 billion in 2023, according to Eurostat data, Italy was the fourth largest exporter to the US – a fact Trump sees as an “atrocity.’’
“In Trump’s mind, that makes you a target,” Uri Dadush, a non-resident fellow at the Bruegel think tank, said of countries that have a large trade surplus with the US.
Italy’s exposure to the American market means the country is particularly vulnerable to tariffs that could make its products uncompetitive with US consumers. And Italian industry is on edge.
“It is an alarm that has been ringing for a while now but here it rings even louder towards Europe,” Emanuele Orsini, president of Confindustria, the industry trade association, wrote in a statement ahead of the latest tariff announcement. "It is a dark hour," Orsini said.
According to farmers association Coldiretti, a 25% tariff could have made Italian food exports up to €2 billion more expensive for Americans shoppers — a figure that would come in only slightly lower if the 20% rate is implemented. With an expected increase of close to €500 million for US consumers, wine would be the most affected agricultural product, followed by olive oil, pasta and cheese.
Meloni has long insisted that dialogue with Washington is still possible, betting that her relationship with Trump would prove an asset. “Trade wars serve no one,” she said on Italian national television last month, pledging to address the issue directly with the US president.
But for Tocci, Meloni’s heretofore reluctance to antagonise Trump is a doomed strategy. “It’s an illusion to build bridges where none exist,” she argued. “This administration isn’t indifferent to the EU, it seeks to weaken or even dismantle it.”
Can Rome appease Trump?
Faced with Trump’s sweeping tariffs, Meloni’s room for maneuver is limited — at least if Rome follows the rules.
As an EU member, Italy has ceded control over trade policy to Brussels, meaning it can only apply political pressure on the European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, to ensure Italian interests remain central to the EU’s response.
Initially, Brussels’ strategy had been to seek de-escalation, swiftly offering to ramp up gas and weapons imports and lower the bloc’s existing tariffs on US cars. The EU then switched gears, with member states agreeing to a set of countermeasures targeting US imports — before before ultimately deciding to hold fire for 90 days following Trump's pause announcement "to give negotiations a chance."
A last resort measure for Rome could be to promise more investment in the US, but that would have negative implications for the Italian economy, Bruegel’s Dadush explained. “If they do so, they invest less in Italy — and Italy needs to grow,” he said.
Whether these openings will be enough to temper Trump’s ire remains uncertain, as recent developments increasingly suggest the president won’t easily budge on a plan that he sees as pivotal to restoring manufacturing jobs in the US.
Sweet deals and trojan horses
But rules are made to be broken.
Despite Meloni’s repeated reassurances that a united EU is essential for trade negotiations with the US, observers widely expect Trump to try to lure his closest allies in Europe with the promise of favourable treatment in order to fracture the bloc’s unity.
"Trump will likely offer what he sees as his Trojan horses a sweet deal — one that may bring short-term benefits but risks undermining the EU competence in the long run," said Tocci. She added that Italy would play a central role in the EU’s trade negotiations with the US, given that its position as the EU’s fourth-largest economy makes it one of the biggest potential losers.
US Vice President J.D. Vance is expected to visit Rome over Easter weekend, and has reportedly requested a meeting with Meloni.
While the details of the "sweet deal" remain unclear, Tocci suggested it would likely involve specific exemptions granted to select countries. One plausible scenario for Italy, Tocci explained, would be for Trump to exempt Italian premium food products such as parmesan and wine, which would likely prove tempting for Meloni.
Quizzed about this scenario, the Commission remains convinced that a fragmented response to the tariff threat would be a major victory for Trump. As the Commission official put it, “the strategic value of presenting a united EU front is very clear.”
This article was originally published on 10 March and was updated on 9 April to reflect recent developments.
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