EU reckons with another Trump presidency

The 45th president of the United States will also be its 47th. After a one-term hiatus, Donald Trump is set to return to the White House — and this time he has the popular vote behind him. 

Not just Trump, but the Republican party more widely outperformed polls that predicted a much closer election. Republicans have retaken the Senate. The House remains undecided, but if it stays in GOP hands, it would mean a clean sweep, handing Trump a powerful mandate to govern as he sees fit. 

That has the European Union on edge. For months, EU officials have spoken of "Trump proofing” the bloc from his threats of a trade war and higher tariffs against European products. Trump's history of bullying allies over defence spending is likely to accelerate their efforts to boost their own military capabilities. 

That dovetails with what comes next for Ukraine in its costly campaign to fend off a Russian invasion, which shows no signs of easing up. Trump has a mixed record on the war and his opinion of Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

It's no secret that most European officials would have preferred a different outcome, as was the case when Trump won the first time in 2016. Regardless, they need to work with whoever leads their powerful partner on the other side of the Atlantic. 

“The EU must now stand particularly close - and act united,” Chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose government in Germany faces its own woes, said in a statement on X. "We believe that we are better off together.” 

Developments in key policy areas may indicate how much the EU will need to strengthen its hand against Trump while also extending its hand to its most important ally. 

Trade and tariffs 

Trump told a crowd in September that US allies “screw us on trade. We're not going to let it happen anymore. We’re going to be a tariff nation.” 

Trump’s campaign has proposed imposing tariffs on imports, including a baseline tariff on 10% of all foreign-made goods, a targeted 60% tariff on Chinese goods and a 100% tariff on all imported cars. 

A range of economists question whether tariffs are an effective means to boost the US economy, with the costs of import duties often passing onto American businesses and consumers. Yet they have been a key tool in the Trump toolbox. 

“Any additional trade barriers between the EU and the US are going to be really problematic for sectors like the car industry and pharmaceuticals, which rely heavily on exports to the US,” Zach Meyers, assistant director at the Centre for European Reform, told The Parliament. 

The European car industry is already facing stiff competition from Chinese rivals. In October, the EU slapped its own tariffs of up to 45.3% on the Chinese electric car industry, citing unfair advantage thanks to Chinese state subsidies. 

Depending on what the incoming Trump administration does, China may still flood the EU market with its cars and other goods that it can’t sell in the US. That could exert more pressure on the struggling sectors like automotive. 

Trump may also seek to protect tech innovation, which the US already has a lead on. The EU relies heavily on US-based digital services from companies like Google, Amazon and Microsoft. These are also companies leading in artificial intelligence and other areas of digital development. 

“When you have a European economy that is so heavily reliant on a couple of American firms, Trump could be forced to act in ways that harm European interests,” Meyers said. 

A divided NATO

Trump's distaste for the US-led NATO alliance is well known. Despite threats to do so, he is unlikely to pull the US out of the alliance completely, but he may step back from its leading role. US allies, whether as members of the EU or NATO or both, have talked a lot about picking up the defence slack, but are far from being able to do so. 

“Europe has become too dependent on the US for defence, and the EU and UK have limited abilities when it comes to resisting the Trump coercion,” Nicholas Williams, a former high-ranking NATO official, told The Parliament. “Europe doesn’t have a plan B.” 

In exchange for keeping the US engaged, Trump could demand that European countries boost their defence spending, possibly even beyond the 2% commitment made by NATO allies in 2014. Trump’s demands are in line with other US presidents, but he is the only one who has threatened to withhold support for an ally if it comes under attack. 

“Europeans will be obliged to do more, spend more on defence in order to have a deterrent capability in terms of conventional forces and potentially nuclear forces against Russia,” Williams said. 

Uncertainty for Ukraine 

Ukraine is an even bigger question mark. Trump has repeatedly said he would end the war there, but he has been light on the details as to how he would do this or what that would look like. 

Vice President-elect JD Vance has said the US would sit down with Russia, Ukraine and the EU to negotiate a deal, which could end with Russia retaining land they have gained, a demilitarised zone and Ukrainian neutrality. That would spell the end of Ukraine's hopes of joining NATO. 

It’s a sharp departure from the EU’s position, which has been firm in its support for Ukraine. The EU’s incoming foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, has rejected Ukrainian concessions.  

If that came to pass, “there will be friction in the relationship between Trump and the European members,” Williams said. 

Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelenskyy was quick to put out a statement on X congratulating Trump on his victory. He applauded  Trump’s “peace through strength” approach. 

The question is in what way US policy on Ukraine would change and how that would impact Ukraine's ability to fend off the Russian onslaught. Trump has accused Zelenskyy of being the "greatest salesman on earth" for securing billions of dollars in weapons from Washington. 

“Business as usual is no longer possible,” Ian Lesser, a distinguished fellow at the German Marshall Fund, told The Parliament from the think tank's Brussels office. 

“There has been a growing demand for greater clarity on the US strategy when it comes to Ukraine. Scepticism about unfettered support for Ukraine will also grow in certain camps,” he added. 

Hungarian President Viktor Orbán, a Trump supporter who maintains warm relations with Putin, called for a new strategy towards Ukraine in a statement on Wednesday. Hungary has regularly blocked EU efforts to help Ukraine. 

Galvanising the EU’s far-right  

Orbán's civilizational worldview, which draws dividing lines along religion, culture, and national origin, aligns closely with Trump's. The two have appeared at each other's events. 

Trump's win could embolden the right-wing and nationalist movements that appear to be picking up steam across the EU.  

“Trump in the White House makes them again seem more credible and respectable,” Luigi Scazzieri, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, told The Parliament. 

The normalisation and incorporation of far-right policies on issues like migration, environment and rule of law is already underway in the EU. Trump's victory could further hasten that process, given the kind of attention and support the next president could lend to these views. 

“It makes it seem as if these actors have a privileged line to Trump,” he said. “Countries like Italy, France and Hungary could reap the rewards of that.”