Austria's far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) is the clear favorite after Sunday's national election. The party nabbed 28.9% of the vote — the most of any party.
That's nearly 13 points more than its 2019 result. It marks the first time since World War II that a far-right party in Austria has emerged as the strongest electoral force.
The parties currently in a governing coalition suffered. The centre-right People's Party (ÖVP), which leads the government under Chancellor Karl Nehammer, lost more than 11 points over the 2019 vote, coming in second with 26.3% of the vote. The Greens were down nearly six points at around 8%.
“We have opened a door to a new era, and we will now truly write this new chapter in Austrian history together,” FPÖ leader, Herbert Kickl, told supporters following the results on Sunday evening.
To realise that vision, however, Kickl and his party will have to survive coalition negotiations. Although they have governed together before, the ÖVP has ruled out a coalition with the FPÖ — as long as it involves Kickl. The conservatives could instead strike a deal with the third-place Social Democrats, which stayed stable at 21%, or bolster that slim majority by adding either the Greens or liberal Neos party.
To better understand what's next in Austrian politics, and what it could mean for the European Union, The Parliament spoke to Cengiz Günay, director of the Austrian Institute for International Affairs, a political research group in Vienna.
The following interview has been edited for length and clarity:
What made the far-right FPÖ so successful this year?
For me, it's really difficult to understand. It's interesting because they have the least charismatic leader you can imagine. Herbert Kickl is not a very popular, very inspiring guy. On the contrary. And if you also look at the responses the voters of the FPÖ gave, hardly anyone said that it's because of the political leader.
Nevertheless, it's very much his success because he's a strategist and he positioned very cleverly the party during the pandemic as an anti-corona-measures or anti-pandemic-measures political force. The Freedom Party standing for the freedom of the people.
The other important topic the Freedom Party has been promoting over the last decade or so is stopping migration. It is the discourse of the far right that has kind of conquered the whole political landscape. So, migration is a problem that has become common sense. And the party that has promoted this [is] at the centre of this discourse.
Many people who are critical of migration or see there's a problem, they would not vote for the conservatives, who have also adopted the migration-critical discourse. They would rather vote for the FPÖ.
Two other important things are the FPÖ has been very good in mobilising or using different strategies. So they have used social media for conspiracy theories and things like that. At the same time, Kickl and his colleagues have also tried to appear very serious and in a more trustable way. So, they have combined two different messages.
The other thing is that in this country there is no real protest culture, so there is huge frustration. It’s not only frustration with the current government, it is economic frustration. People don't see a bright future ahead. People have become more pessimistic. And then there is here a movement that is probably the only movement that is suggesting radical and simple solutions. So, I think this has also drawn a lot of voters to the FPÖ.
Austria is currently in a major economic crisis. The Austrian economy has been shrinking for two consecutive years, which is novel in Austrian history and there is no change in sight. And then there was a lot of [infighting] between the Greens and the conservatives more recently. So it has become a political petty game.
To what extent does the election outcome impact the EU?
It was different back in 2000 when the far right got [for the] first time into a coalition government. Back then, the political landscape in Europe was different and Austria was a small country where you could kind of exercise a certain political status. Some European states imposed sanctions on Austria.
Today, the situation is completely different. We have the rise of far-right parties into government across Europe. They are supporting a minority government in Sweden; they are in power in the Netherlands. They have become a major force in France, even influencing the forming of the new government there. The AfD [Alternative for Germany] in eastern German states has become the first political force there.
We have Hungary, Slovakia, and you can continue to list. The far right has turned out to be a part of the political establishment in many European countries. The problem here is probably the FPÖ has radicalised itself a bit further, now with these conspiracy theories about the pandemic — and also regarding Russia and Ukraine, the FPÖ campaign in the European elections was quite appalling.
They frame it pro-peace, but actually [it is] pro-Russian. And they also criticise the policies of the government trying to reduce the dependency on Russian gas, for instance. So they say, why should we suffer? Why should we pay for Ukrainians and their stubbornness and so on. These are quite familiar positions of far-right parties.
But I don't see the FPÖ — and this is the dilemma they are having — on the national level. Currently, they're rather isolated because of these positions and this is actually preventing them from participating in power and having a real impact. They would need to soften their positions to be able to enter [government]. I don't see this ÖVP leadership agreeing to be second in the coalition under Kickl on top. There might be some people willing to go into coalition with the FPÖ because they have more overlaps in their programs than with the Social Democrats. But from today's perspective, it seems unlikely.
FPÖ’s Kickl co-founded the far-right Patriots for Europe group in the European Parliament. What does the electoral result in Austria now mean for them?
This is an alliance on the European Parliament level. So national elections can give a certain boost in terms of energy, but they don't translate into real political changes. What's important for this alliance are the European elections, of course, and here in the European elections last June the FPÖ was less successful than it was predicted in the polls because many of the FPÖ voters don't consider European elections as important as national elections. So this is a disadvantage for them.
If you look on the European level, it's just another piece of the mosaic. We see a tremendous change going on. This is not only going on in Austria. We see that the centre parties, the conservatives and the centre left, are kind of losing their mobilisation capacities. They struggle with developing and also conveying programmes and messages that are clear to a broader electorate. They are struggling with developing strategies in general, not only on the European level but also on their national levels.
Europe itself and the whole European project unfortunately is in crisis. And if the liberal and progressive and leftists and moderate forces don't unite and come up with new strategies, I think the problem is that for the near future, it's going to be the far right that is dominating.
What would stop this drift to the right that we are seeing across the EU?
What we see is that neither of the strategies — either the German firewall or the inclusion into the system — work. These are two diametrically different strategies. We are in a deep systemic crisis, and migration or the increase in migration, is just making these changes probably more visible.
Education systems are in crisis. We can't keep up with the international competition. Innovation is in crisis and economies are in crisis. The welfare states are in crisis. And no one is really addressing this. It's a continuous muddling through.
To respond to the rise of the far right just by saying “democracy is in danger” is a bit too easy, I think. And then we can't compare developments of today with the developments a hundred years ago. I absolutely see the parallels in some regards, and it's frightening how the far right, particularly in Austria, has adopted some of the slogans of that time — like Kickl saying he's going to be the Volkskanzler. This is appalling and it needs to be addressed, but it can't be the only argument against them.