Brexit result too close to call, suggest final polls

British in/out referendum race on a knife edge.

British voters head to the polls today in historic 'Brexit' vote | Photo credit: Press Association

By Brian Johnson

Brian Johnson is Managing Editor of The Parliament Magazine

23 Jun 2016


Final polling on the British EU referendum shows the Remain and Leave campaigns running neck and neck as voting begins today.

An overall poll of polls, based on the last six surveys of voting intentions, puts the Remain camp at 51 per cent against Leave's 49 per cent, which could indicate a possible late swing to the pro-EU campaign.

But even this final overall average is within the three per cent plus or minus margin of error commonly used for electoral opinion polls of this nature, suggesting that it is still virtually impossible to predict the final outcome.

An IpsosMORI survey, commissioned by the Evening Standard, put the Remain campaign slightly ahead on 52-48, while rivals Opinium gave Leave a 51-49 lead.

Despite the tightness of the race, IpsosMori said that based on their number crunching "the probability of Britain voting to Remain in the European Union is 74 per cent. This means there is still a one in four chance of Brexit."

Meanwhile a YouGov survey placed the Remain campaign slightly ahead on 51-49, while a ComRes poll for the Daily Mail and British TV broadcaster ITV gave the Remain camp a six-point advantage (the largest lead from all six final polls) at 54-46.

YouGov said that their polling suggested that, "the race is too close to call, but the recent trend has been towards Remain, just as other referendums in the past have shown late movement towards the status quo."

Rival group Opinium gave Leave a 45-44 lead, with 11 per cent of voters still to make up their minds, while TNS also put the advantage with Leave at 43 per cent, against Remain's 41 per cent with 16 per cent still undecided or not voting.

TNS's Luke Taylor said, "With many of the public still undecided or not planning to vote there is uncertainty around the outcome of the referendum. Our latest poll suggests that Leave is in a stronger position than Remain but it should be noted that in the Scottish independence referendum and the 1995 Quebec independence referendum, there was a late swing to the status quo and it is possible that the same will happen here."

All surveys were concluded on Wednesday on the eve of polling.

With the race so finely balanced, factors such as today's weather could play a significant role, as could turnout from key demographics. Those under 35 are more strongly in favour of Remaining in the EU than older voters, who are more inclined to want to leave the bloc.

The Polls will close at 10pm (BST), with approximately 46.5m people eligible to vote - the largest plebiscite in British history.

Results will be counted by the country's local authorities, with the first results expected around 2 am and the final result set to be declared at around 7 am on Friday morning.