The consequences of the Ukraine crisis have once again highlighted Europe's vulnerability to energy import disruptions. Most of the debate is focussed on how to maintain a constant supply of fossil fuels, such as gas, which still represent the backbone of Europe's energy supply.
But member state governments and the European commission have realised that the risk of supply shortages is only one of many problems linked to Europe's reliance on fossil fuel imports. These imports come at a huge cost - over €400bn each year - and lead to large amounts of carbon emissions that cause climate change and air pollution.
When it comes to energy, Europe is acting like a 'junkie' that spends increasing amounts of money on drugs. Now the EU's favourite fossil fuels dealer, Russia, is not delivering, the junkie is on a desperate quest for new providers, instead of trying to kick the habit. Until they cure their addiction, European countries cannot claim to be in full control of their destiny.
"Until they cure their addiction, European countries cannot claim to be in full control of their destiny"
So far, the EU has largely dealt with energy security and climate-related energy concerns as separate issues. A new Greenpeace report, 'A roadmap towards a sustainable and independent energy supply for Europe', shows that the two issues are inextricably linked, as 2030 targets have the potential to drastically reduce fossil fuel imports from Russia and elsewhere.
In January this year, the commission suggested that the EU should cut carbon emissions by 40 per cent and raise the share of renewables to 27 per cent by 2030; it has so far failed to propose an energy efficiency target for 2030. Under the commission's plan, growth in the renewables sector would drop from almost seven per cent per year in the current decade to under two per cent between 2020 and 2030. By 2030, Europe's energy consumption would drop by less than 15 per cent compared to 2010.
According to the European commission's own estimates, energy imports would decrease by 11 per cent in 2030, compared to 2010. Despite this small reduction, the EU's share of imports would remain over 50 per cent, roughly the same in 2030 as it is today. The EU's net import bill would also rise from €421bn in 2012 to €452bn on average between 2011 and 2030.
However, more stringent EU 2030 targets to achieve a 45 per cent share of renewables, 40 per cent energy savings (compared to 2005) and a 55 per cent cut in domestic carbon emissions (compared to 1990) could reduce annual imports of fossil fuels by at least 45 per cent compared to the commission's plan. By 2030, gas imports could be reduced by a further 35 per cent and oil imports by a further 45 per cent. As coal power plants are phased out in the 2030s, coal imports would cease altogether before the end of the next decade.
By 2030, Europe's energy consumption would be about 35 per cent lower than in 2010, with 46 per cent of that covered by clean and home-grown renewable energy. Carbon emission cuts would also be much higher than under the commission's plan, reaching over 60 per cent for energy-related CO2 emissions.
"They must resist the temptation of tinkering around the edges and fundamentally change course while they still can"
The commission's 2030 plan will not deliver on the dual challenge of energy security and climate change. It will do too little on both fronts. At a time when new MEPs are just settling into their offices and the Barroso commission is already winding down, EU heads of state and government will have to set the direction. At their meeting at the end of June, they confirmed that they will take a final decision on both issues – 2030 targets and energy security – at an EU summit in October.
They must resist the temptation of tinkering around the edges and fundamentally change course while they still can. Like a drug addition, dragging it out longer will only make it more difficult.