Top American and Russian diplomats met in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday to push forward negotiations over ending Russia's war in Ukraine and generally improving relations. It marks a significant turnaround in US policy, which largely cut off contact with Russia since its full-scale invasion of its neighbour in February 2022.
Ukrainian and other European officials were notably absent from the meeting.
Since his reelection campaign, Trump has made little secret of his interest in ending the war and reengaging with Russia. His call with President Vladimir Putin last week, which presaged today's in-person talks, came as an unwelcome shock to US allies in Europe.
What the US might want
While exact terms remain unclear, the US has signalled it may support Russia keeping territory it has captured and denying NATO membership to Ukraine. It would want European and other non-US troops to take responsibility for monitoring any deal, with the US weighing how much support it would offer.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who was visiting his counterpart in Turkey at the time of Russian-US talks, said he did not know ahead of time that the Saudi meeting was scheduled. He has rejected agreeing to any terms his country is not part of negotiating.
“Ukraine's right to self-determination has completely been pushed aside,” Yf Reykers, an assistant professor in international relations at Maastricht University, told The Parliament. “European leaders are starting to realise that they have a problem. Trump is doing geopolitics in a hyper-transactional way.”
Keith Kellogg, Trump's Ukraine envoy who did not attend the Saudi gathering, has assured European and Ukrainian officials that no one will impose a deal on Ukraine. He urged European counterparts to stop "complaining” about their lack of role and get involved by "coming up with concrete proposals and investing more in defence.”
“The EU has to agree with 27, and member states have their own domestic issues,” Reykers said. “It ensures that Europe cannot speak credibly with one voice.”
EU struggles to find common voice
A day ahead of the US-Russian meeting, French President Emmanuel Macron convened an emergency summit in Paris with six EU member states, EU officials and the United Kingdom. It ended inconclusively, with no consensus on what European countries might substantively contribute.
The idea of deploying European troops to Ukraine has proven divisive. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer expressed some support, along with Sweden and Denmark. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who faces an election this weekend he will likely lose, rejected boots on the ground. Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk did, too, despite his strong backing of Ukraine and the country's big boost in its military budget.
There was more agreement on following Poland's lead on defence spending. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen suggested the EU could temporarily waive strict budget rules to allow for it.
“Europeans should rise up to the challenge,” Giovanni Grevi, a senior fellow at the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy at the Brussels School of Governance, told The Parliament. “Not just because of their own security, but also because it shows the Trump administration Europe is an essential part of the solution.”
Adding to the European disunity was criticism of how few European countries Macron invited. The Baltics, despite their geographic proximity to Russia and robust Ukraine policy, were not present. EU members with a mixed record confronting Russia, such as Hungary, were also absent.
With NATO membership for Ukraine, a path to which was first floated in 2008 and reaffirmed last year, seeming to slip further away, EU membership may take on renewed significance. Ukraine has been pushing for both, and it has widespread support in the EU to join the bloc. It received candidate status in 2022.
Membership is one item the EU can tangibly offer, which the US has little say over. Yet the process is long and extends to issues well beyond defence.
“The future of a resilient Ukraine, under the necessary security guarantees provided by the EU, rests with Europe,” Grevi said.