Marta Kos may have the most difficult job in Brussels. The new Commissioner for Enlargement is responsible for bringing new countries into the EU after two decades of near-stagnation, at a time when many national governments have little appetite to welcome new members and few of the candidates present straightforward cases.
The last big wave of EU enlargement was in 2004, when Kos’ native Slovenia was among 10 countries to join the bloc. Since then, only three have joined – Romania and Bulgaria in 2007, and Croatia in 2013 – and Britain left in 2020.
Now, 10 countries are on the path to EU membership, at least in theory. Albania, North Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Serbia, Turkey and Ukraine are in negotiations; Bosnia-Herzegovina and Georgia have candidate status; and Kosovo’s accession is at the pre-candidate stage.
One of Kos’ first challenges will be “securing the commitment of all member states to avoid further delaying the accession of new countries,” Berta López Domènech, an analyst at the European Policy Centre (EPC) think tank, tells The Parliament. “In the next five years, it will be crucial to turn rhetorical commitments into concrete action.”
Candidate at war
Among the most pressing issues is Ukraine, the first-ever accession process involving a candidate in active war. At her confirmation hearing in the European Parliament last month, Kos signalled that completing the process would be contingent on peace being achieved: “Ukraine’s progress will depend on how long the war lasts,” she said, while expressing hope to begin negotiations “by early 2025.”
Since 2022, Russia’s war in Ukraine and the latter’s subsequent EU membership application have reshaped the bloc’s enlargement policy with a newfound urgency regarding countries under attack or otherwise facing threats to their sovereignty. “Closing the door to these countries would leave the entire continent vulnerable to malign influences,” López Domènech says.
“We expect the Commissioner to honour the commitments and plans set during the previous mandate,” says Liza Bezvershenko, who campaigns for Brussels-based Promote Ukraine. Expediting Ukraine’s accession would bring “significant” benefits including “enhanced security, a strong military, abundant natural resources, and a highly skilled workforce,” she says. Most importantly, bringing Ukraine into the EU “would not only reinforce these values but also secure their preservation in the long term.”
Nevertheless, current EU members are concerned about the potential economic consequences of bringing in new members, including Ukraine. Recent competitiveness reports by Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta, both former Italian prime ministers, have demonstrated a need for deep economic reform in the EU, which could be complicated by bringing in new members simultaneously.
This represents “a deep challenge that the EU has not faced in a long time,” says Adnan Ćerimagić, an analyst at the European Stability Initiative (ESI), an enlargement-focused think tank. Many member states consider it “rational” to wait for internal reforms and a more positive economic cycle before advancing enlargement. “This is why they are so sceptical about committing to precise timelines.”
Other candidates
Montenegro is the candidate most likely to join the EU in the near future, aiming to complete the process before the end of this Commission mandate in 2029. “We will work tirelessly to become the 28th member by 2028,” Petar Markovic, Montenegro’s Head of Mission to the EU, tells The Parliament. “The EU can use our seamless joining the club to prove that the Union has finally and definitely regained its power of attraction.”
Other candidates could prove more challenging. Negotiations with North Macedonia are stalemated after the candidate objected to EU requests to change its constitution. Georgia has suspended talks following elections in October that returned a pro-Russian prime minister. Serbia and Kosovo continue to object to each other’s candidacies.
Even among countries without such major obstacles, such as Albania and Bosnia-Herzegovina, politicians must overcome apathy among their own populations. “There is not much enthusiasm among the population” of Bosnia-Herzegovina, says Ćerimagić, who is himself Bosnian. The EU has offered the prospect of accession to “keep the country united and to demonstrate that peace is an irreversible process,” he says, but tensions persist between ethnically aligned parties.
Nevertheless, he adds, “Bosnians are closely observing Montenegro” to see if, upon accession, “it will become easier for local businesses to operate and whether citizens will live better.” One success story could yet rekindle other European countries’ desire to join the EU.