The European elections left many people reeling, with several political heavyweights losing their seats and several new and unexpected faces being elected for the first time.
Many capitals are entering a period of uncertainty, especially in light of forthcoming national general elections. Meanwhile, the dust is starting to settle in Brussels and we are starting to see the consequences.
The results across the EU will significantly alter the shape of the European parliament and influence the appointment of the new European commission. They will also influence the nature of legislation that is both proposed and adopted. But perhaps not in the way people expect.
The focus in the media and national capitals has been on two things: firstly the rise of parties like the UK Independence Party, the Front National in France and the Partij voor de Vrijheid (Party for Freedom) in the Netherlands, and other nationalist, anti-European and anti-establishment parties; secondly how the results will influence the appointment of a new commission president. However, the consequences extend far beyond that and will be, to some extent, counter-intuitive.
Although diminished, over two-thirds of MEPs can be categorised as pro-EU and will still dominate the parliament and the appointment of the new commission. The extremes will try to exert influence, and the usual horse-trading will lead to a period of uncertainty. But this will be brief.
Based on their performance in the last European parliament, MEPs from the extremes lack coherence, and in my experience as an MEP for ten years they end up either being assimilated or becoming frustrated. Who even remembers the maiden speech by newly elected MEP Robert Kilroy-Silk pledging to 'wreck' the EU?
"The pro-Europeans have a common enemy to rally against, and the economic recovery is simply too fragile to permit an extended period of introspection"
The pro-Europeans have a common enemy to rally against, and the economic recovery is simply too fragile to permit an extended period of introspection. That's not to say reform will not be on the agenda, but it will be very much rooted in the existing European tradition.
Within the pro-European block, the S&D group will have greater influence than at any time in the last 15 years. As is made very clear in their manifesto there will be greater focus on promoting social Europe, tackling climate change, strengthening consumer protection and imposing tougher regulation on financial and other markets. Given the pro-euro, pro-EU and pro-social market focus of the EPP group it's not hard to work out the direction of travel.
"MEPs that believe Europe is the answer will remain in the ascendency"
MEPs that believe Europe is the answer will remain in the ascendency. While those that believe it is the problem will be marginalised. The German grand coalition is the template for governance. It's simply not in the interests of the majority pro-Europeans to do anything else.
As for the future, the extremes have reached their high water mark if Europe's fragile economic recovery is sustained. Sentiment towards the EU closely follows the economic cycle, as a recent survey by Pew research centre demonstrates.
While the extremes have gained seats, the centre-left will have more power. It's perhaps ironic that partly thanks to those new noisy neighbours moving onto the benches next door to the pro-Europeans, this will be a parliament more committed to social Europe and more open to reaching compromise. The Europe of consensus has won the election.
It will never be quite the same again, but to misquote Mark Twain, "reports of the death of the EU are greatly exaggerated".