At the COP29 climate summit, which took place following Donald Trump’s re-election, Wopke Hoekstra struck a hopeful note on the prospects for engagement between the European Union and the United States.
“I can actually see a range of topics where we can have a fruitful discussion,” Hoekstra, now the European Commission’s climate commissioner, said.
The optimism contrasts with widespread concerns overshadowing the president-elect’s vow to reverse US commitment to global climate action.
A denier of human-induced climate change and critic of his predecessor's energy policies, US President-elect Trump has pledged to exit international agreements, slash federal funding for renewable energy and expand fossil fuel production. Those positions put Brussels on high alert for a series of trade- and climate-related challenges with their transatlantic partner.
Tug-of-war
Trump is wielding energy dependence as a tool for negotiation. On social media, he has demanded Europeans increase their purchases of American fossil fuels, especially liquefied natural gas (LNG), under threat of tariffs. While some European leaders have expressed a willingness to comply, critics argue that such a move is hypocritical.
“The signal that the EU wants to purchase more LNG is hardly a good climate or competitiveness measure,” Domien Vangenechten, a policy advisor at the climate think tank E3G, tells The Parliament.
In the first quarter of 2024, the EU imported 47 per cent of its LNG and 17 per cent of its oil from the US, according to Eurostat. Trump’s pressure adds complexity to Executive Vice-President Teresa Ribera’s pledge to uphold the EU’s 2030 climate targets, including reducing fossil fuel dependency. Meanwhile, EU energy policy is already under strain from efforts to phase out Russian gas by 2027.
Trump’s demands may be a reaction to EU climate policies like the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which is set for full implementation in 2026 and will impose fees on carbon-intensive imports.
“Trump will claim that this is green protectionism,” Robert Basedow, assistant professor of international political economy at the London School of Economics, tells The Parliament. “He may tie the softening of these measures to demands in negotiations with the EU.”
At COP29, emerging economies like Brazil, South Africa and India criticised EU policies like CBAM, calling them “unilateral restrictive trade measures.”
“The EU must recognise these concerns and ensure that such policies incentivise rather than penalise,” Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, former vice chair of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, tells The Parliament.
Clean tech won’t go away
Trump may attempt to exploit political divisions among EU members, but this strategy could backfire. While some European leaders, such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, welcomed Trump’s victory, they may not support the consequences of his America-first agenda. Trump’s protectionist trade policies could hurt export-driven economies like Hungary’s.
During his campaign, Trump signaled a desire to roll back climate-friendly initiatives. However, this is easier said than done, as the clean tech sector has become an entrenched industry.
In the US, investments in renewables are estimated to have surpassed $2tn in 2024, bolstered by emerging sectors like AI and data centers.
“Even if Trump tries to remove as much as possible, state governments and companies will continue to invest in clean tech because it’s profitable,” Joseph Delatte, a research fellow at the independent think tank Institut Montaigne, tells The Parliament.
Should Trump target the US’ domestic industry, it could inadvertently provide the EU with an advantage. European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen’s proposal of a Clean Industrial Deal aims to decarbonise European industries while bolstering their competitiveness.
“It could create real opportunities for European companies that wouldn’t have been possible under a different president,” Vangenechten says.
EU Climate leadership on shaky ground
Nevertheless, Trump’s return to the White House will likely weaken global efforts to tackle climate change. If the US withdraws from the Paris Agreement – something Trump did during his first term, only for Joe Biden to rejoin – it could embolden major emitters like China, Brazil and India to resist further climate commitments.
“Whether the US withdraws from the Paris Agreement or not, it is clear they will not be climate leaders,” Van Ypersele says. “This opens opportunities for the EU to enhance its leadership role by finding as many areas of common interest with other actors as possible.”