Poland is gearing up to take over the rotating presidency of the European Council in January with more swagger in its step. The country wants to show it plays second fiddle to no one.
After two decades of EU membership and bolstered by geopolitics – particularly Russia’s decade long meddling in Ukraine – Poland doesn’t see itself as a mere recipient of billions of euros in cohesion funds for infrastructure (though that certainly hasn't hurt). Instead, Warsaw is becoming increasingly important to the EU's single market, external borders and common defence.
The current government, a hodgepodge of parties led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, has embarked on a mission to steer the bloc of 27 countries towards a unified stance on what Warsaw says are its gravest threats: Russia and uncontrolled migration.
“The Polish presidency won’t be about just making through these six months somehow,” Tusk told reporters after meeting with Thérèse Blanchet, the secretary-general of the Council of the EU. “We must become an organism capable not only of survival but also of political offensives. We will be very determined to make Europe start thinking in Polish terms.”
The view reflects a longstanding Polish grievance: That it, like many of its neighbours in central and eastern Europe, are often ignored. Poland is looking for the respect it feels it deserves as the EU's fifth-largest member by population and sixth-biggest economy.
"In these fundamental matters, especially concerning security, it has often been the case that we were right, but no one wanted to listen to us," Tusk told reporters.
For all his clout in the EU – Tusk served as the president of the European Council from 2014 to 2019 – he still has a mountain to climb. That was evident recently when he was left out of a meeting about Ukraine that included US President Joe Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
It hasn't been all deaf ears, however. Tusk won over an EU summit by having leaders back his proposal to clamp down on migration, after calling people crossing into Poland from Belarus a type of hybrid warfare waged by by Belarus and Russia against the EU.
Warsaw has also spoken out against strict deficit rules, climate policy and the Mercosur free-trade deal with Latin America.
Despite this show of confidence, Tusk's presidency faces two big unknowns – one foreign, and one domestic. Just three weeks after his presidency starts on 1 January, Donald Trump will take the oath of office again. No one can say what he has in store for his transatlantic allies.
Then, towards the end of the EU presidency, Poland will vote for its next president. The role is still held by a holdover from Tusk's predecessors, the national-conservative and EU-rankling Law and Justice (PiS) party, who has held up Tusk's agenda. It is far from clear if voters will choose a Tusk ally to take over.
Regardless, most of those voters remain enthusiastic about the EU. In May, 83 per cent of those surveyed for Polish broadcaster, TOK FM, expressed pro-EU sentiment. Even the most skeptical age group, aged from 18 to 29, remain strongly pro-EU.