EU leaders had little to celebrate on Thursday after a proposed €40 billion military aid plan for Ukraine fell apart. The inconclusive European Council summit cast doubt on the European Union’s ability to reliably support Ukraine as it navigates peacemaking with the United States and Russia.
The meeting came on the back of a US-led deal between Russia and Ukraine that halts Russia’s attacks on energy infrastructure for 30 days. With the EU playing almost no role in negotiations between Washington, Kyiv and Moscow, and the future of the transatlantic alliance in doubt, the bloc has stepped up efforts to support Kyiv and its own defence in hopes of shoring up its credibility.
The plan, put forward by Kaja Kallas, the EU’s top diplomat, would have doubled military assistance to Ukraine from 2024 levels. It faced almost immediate objections, notably from Italy, France and Slovakia. By the time leaders convened on Thursday, the figure had shrunk to €5 billion.
“Possibly one of the most dissonant EU Council[s] in a decade,” Alberto Alemanno, a professor in EU law at HEC Paris Business School, wrote on X.
An EU diplomat told reporters that Italy was the most vocal opponent, insisting that leaders reaffirm the voluntary nature of the initiative, which is a donation system by design. In the end, the Council’s final statement on Ukraine was endorsed by 26 members — an expedient way to sidestep Hungary’s anticipated veto and avoid a stalemate.
The outcome once again reflected the difficulty in asking 27 countries to speak in a single voice, which risks the bloc breaking down into a handful of policy cliques.
Kallas under fire
The EU is not alone in falling short of its Ukraine goals. US efforts, which the Council‘s final text said it welcomed, have so far failed to realise President Donald Trump’s claims that he could swiftly end the war, which Russia kicked off in a limited way in 2014 and doubled down with a full-scale invasion in 2022.
Political support for Ukraine within the EU remains strong, despite Kallas’ setback, which Olivia Lazard, a fellow at Carnegie Europe, chalked up to poor coordination among important players, such as Paris and Rome.
“I don't think that the urgency [of helping Ukraine] is questioned by the fact that Kallas’ plan was watered down,” she told The Parliament. “We can't go from 20 miles an hour to 200 miles an hour in the matter of, like, 3 to 4 weeks.”
Elsewhere, Kallas’ performance has been roundly pilloried.
EU leaders also locked horns over how to raise spending for the bloc’s own defence. Disagreements dovetail with a larger budget debate, likely to last until summer.
Estonia’s Prime Minister Kristen Michal, who faces the possible collapse of his government, said his country would increase defence spending to 5% of GDP. That would knock Poland out of the top spending spot among EU and NATO countries and keep the eastern European region both talking the talk and walking the walk on military matters.
European divisions
“Some countries feel directly affected,” Roland Freudenstein, Brussels Office Director of the Free Russia Foundation, told The Parliament. "The question becomes: Do we spend it on military hardware, or do we also consider border fortifications? For once, geography really has a decisive influence on politics."
The spending spree is an attempt to undo decades of underinvestment in security and defence, which has left European countries dependent on the US and now vulnerable to Trump’s mercurial moves.
The European Commission’s plan aims to mobilise up to €800 billion in additional investment, including a €150 billion programme of low-interest loans and approval to borrow more for military spending.
“The proposal is the first step," Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa told reporters. "We're open for more discussions [on] how we can find even more finances, and how we can get Europe to be more competitive.”
Madrid and Rome are advocating for an expanded definition of defence spending.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said expanding border controls, counter-terrorism resources and cyber-security should count towards any increase. A European Commission White Paper on defence, released on Wednesday, puts the emphasis on military equipment.
"Southern heads of government are not as stupid to tell the Baltics, ‘Hey, you're paranoid,’” said Freudenstein. “Compromise is possible.”
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