Despite ongoing Russian aggression in Ukraine the absence of elections there has become a topic of high-level discussion. US President Donald Trump, called his Ukrainian counterpart a "dictator” because he has remained in office beyond peacetime term limits.
Perhaps Trump needs to be reminded that it is not peacetime. Holding elections while the country is at war and some of it is occupied is not only misguided, it is a violation of Ukraine's constitution and dangerous.
Doing so ignores the legal, practical and security aspects of Ukraine’s martial law, which has been in place since February 2022 following Russia’s invasion. Since then, martial law has been repeatedly extended through parliamentary votes with the most recent extension until 9 May 2025.
Under normal circumstances, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's term would have concluded in 2024, with elections originally scheduled for spring of that year.
Intentionally or not, those calling for an election play into the hands the Kremlin’s plans to subvert Ukrainian society from within.
Elections and martial law
The unconstitutionality of holding elections during periods of martial law is a necessity to protect the core values of the country whilst at war.
Democracy cannot function normally under such conditions. There is no way to be able to ensure a free and fair election, such as access to polling stations, when missiles are falling on major cities. Ukrainians who have been evacuated or captured in Russian-occupied territories are in no position to participate.
Incessant fighting would make it impossible to perform the normal duties of carrying out an election, such as transporting and counting ballots, encouraging turnout and protecting the voter registrar.
It is in Russia's interest that Ukraine holds elections. A chaotic and poorly organised voting process would open elections up to interference from cyber-attacks and misinformation. Using the authoritarian language of doublespeak, it would be easy for Russia to spin Ukrainian democracy as undemocratic, underpinning a core aspect of Kremlin propaganda that was used to justify the full-scale invasion in the first place
If Russia could claim that the election was manipulated, it would undermine Ukrainian political and social stability.
How to hold real elections
That is not to say that Ukraine should not hold elections. Indeed, they are crucial. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his government require a democratic mandate to remain in power. That makes a ceasefire essential. Citizens must be able to vote without fear of attack and election authorities need to perform their functions efficiently and safely.
Before any election planning, a thorough security assessment is needed to determine the level of stability in all regions. This includes making sure that recently liberated territories are secure and that there are strong countermeasures against Russian influence in the form of cyber-attacks or propaganda. Without these safeguards, the integrity of the electoral process could be severely compromised.
Even when the security situation improves, Ukraine will require a minimum of one year to be ready for elections. The country has to rebuild its electoral infrastructure, update voter lists and make arrangements for IDPs and expatriates to vote. To rush through this process without sufficient preparation might jeopardise not only the credibility but also the accessibility of the elections.
Above all, the elections should be held when the peace is real and can be enforced. If martial law is lifted and there is no stable and enforceable settlement, both the security of Ukraine and its voters will be at risk. The democratic process must be protected so all citizens can exercise their right to vote freely without fear of retaliation. The stability of this level is crucial for a legitimate and representative election.
Stakes are too high
With a cessation of hostilities, Ukraine must re-establish contact with the Venice Commission and enhance the role of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). These mechanisms can help avoid corruption and to reassure both Ukrainians and the international community.
The Russian strategy is evident. If it cannot defeat Ukraine on the battlefield, it will seek to erode the country’s political stability. As we have seen elsewhere, including in established Western democracies, Russia can sow interfere in domestic politics elsewhere with little effort and at a small cost.
The international community should respect the Ukrainian people’s right to decide when and how they restore their democratic system. This can be done gradually to prove its credibility and functionality. It is also the best way to defeat Russian efforts to destabilise the country.
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