“Don’t feed the troll,” warned German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. “A line has been crossed,” said UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Who could have imagined ten years ago that the owner of one of the world’s largest social networks would “intervene directly in elections,” pondered French President Emmanuel Macron. “Hands off our democracy, Mr Musk!” the German Green party’s Robert Habeck told Der Spiegel.
The richest man in the world and owner of social media platform X has made headlines across the globe in recent weeks for his proclamations that only the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party could “save Germany” and that his former ally Nigel Farage should step down as leader of the Reform UK party. He has said Starmer should be jailed, while cozying up to right-wing Italian leader Giorgia Meloni.
Musk’s statements are permitted under European Union rules such as the Digital Services Act (DSA). But his comments have put many centrist European leaders’ on edge, stoking fears that his words could galvanise an already emboldened far right that has been attracting voters across the bloc.
More broadly, the panic among politicians and the media raises questions about whether Musk himself is actually destabilising democracies in Europe – or if he’s rather a symptom of an existing malaise.
“Democracy is not at risk because of Musk himself,” says Jonathan Katz, senior director at the Brookings Institution and a former US foreign policy advisor. “The deeper challenges are what we're facing in democracies including issues involving disinformation, about mistrust in democracies. Musk alone is not going to sink democracy in Europe.”
Democracy under strain
The 2007-2009 global recession, the Covid-19 pandemic, climate change disasters, a backlash against uncontrolled migration, and the rise of authoritarianism have all undermined confidence in Western democracies.
Elections around the world last year saw incumbents ousted or punished by voters, and in Europe most leaders have seen their approval ratings fall. A recent poll by German public broadcaster ARD found that 75% of Germans think Chancellor Olaf Scholz is doing “not well” in his role. France’s Macron has a 23% approval rating.
At the same time, anti-establishment, populist sentiment is rising. Though Germany looks set to be led by the Christian Democratic Union’s Friedrich Merz after next month’s election, the AfD’s voice still rings in many ears. In France, Macron faces opposition from all sides and cannot seek re-election in 2027. Tusk’s ruling party constantly trades barbs with Poland’s far-right opposition PiS.
A frequent criticism of the most extreme parties on the far right, including the AfD, is their ideological proximity to Vladimir Putin’s Russia, which is waging war against one EU candidate country – Ukraine – and interfering in the elections of others such as Moldova and Georgia.
But for many voters, Europe’s security and defence are not high priorities. After last summer’s EU elections, polling from the European Parliament found that voters’ top issues were the cost of living and the economic situation, at 42% and 41%, respectively. Security and defence lagged behind at only 28%.
The rise of the far right is partly attributable to its ability to tap into these issues and, unburdened by a record in office, promise an alternative to the political status quo. The resilience of democracies “depends as well on whether Europe’s centre and left are able to tap into the general public discontent of our times as successfully as the right has been able to,” Ilan Kapoor, a researcher with the University of Toronto who has written extensively on neoliberalism, told The Parliament.
Musk, experts say, is tapping into that same discontent. “In the last couple of years, you've seen a lot of incumbent parties lose because of economic records or not doing the things that voters perceive needed to be done,” says Katz.
Meanwhile, European leaders must also keep a close eye on the US as Donald Trump enters the White House for the second time. “In his first term, the US retreated from its leading role with partners and advancing democracy globally,” says Katz. “That's going to put a huge burden on Europe and democracies in Europe.”
Information manipulation
At the same time, governments must grapple with a wave of false and misleading information, of the sort that came to prominence during the Covid-19 pandemic – spread both domestically and planted by hostile powers like Russia.
The EU’s DSA, which came into force in 2022, was part of a slew of regulation to govern speech online. Mitigating the effects of foreign information manipulation and interference (FIMI) is also part of the EU’s security and defence plan.
When asked whether Musk's recent statements were in breach of the DSA, an EU Commission spokesperson told reporters that “free and fair elections are at the core of our democracies,” but that Musk's words were still “within the remit of free speech.”
Katz said that wealthy and powerful individuals such as Musk can sway public opinion without breaking the law: “Musk has a bully pulpit [in X] that he can use. So a really challenging question for democracies is how do you address things like what we'd call free speech?”
But whether Musk’s actions amount to foreign interference, of the sort generally associated with Russia or China, is debatable. “When we're talking about foreign interference, it's something quite specific. It's a combination of covert or obfuscation, with some intent to cause harm,” Etienne Soula, an analyst with the Alliance for Securing Democracy (ASD) at the German Marshall Fund, told The Parliament. “For now, what Elon Musk is doing for us does not constitute foreign interference because it's not covert.”
Nonetheless, governments across Europe are worried about the effect Musk’s statements could have on popular opinion. “With [foreign interference] there was a certain convenience to the fact that it was clearly attributable to authoritarian actors that are openly hostile to the EU, to democracy and human rights globally,” says Soula. “It was easier to see it as kind of an external threat.”
While the Commission has already opened a formal investigation into X, including on how the platform manages risks to civic discourse and elections, Musk was free under the DSA to host an interview on his platform with AfD leader Alice Weidel, without inviting other leaders for similar interviews for balance, as large broadcasters would be obliged to do.
X has become a means for Musk to flex his political muscle on social media – whilst mostly dodging EU regulators. “This speaks to the power of corporate social media today, which in many ways is overtaking the power of mainstream news outlets,” says Kapoor. “All the more so when you consider that celebrities such as Musk attract so much attention.”