The victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election, while not unsurprising, has nonetheless sent shockwaves across the Atlantic. Trump’s success has brought significant attention to potential shifts in US foreign policy for his second term.
One of the most pressing concerns for the European Union is how the Trump administration will approach China, which many believe will be a key focus of several areas of its policy. Trump has previously suggested treating the EU like a "mini China," which has led to fears that the bloc could find itself caught in a geopolitical and economic tug-of-war between the two superpowers.
The EU’s economic ties with China have grown significantly over the past decade, but the Trump administration may push for a more confrontational stance. That could mean exempting the EU from direct tariffs in exchange for commitments to increase imports of American liquefied natural gas and aligning against China. This could place the bloc in a precarious position, forced to choose between aligning with the US on trade and security, or continuing its own economic engagements with China.
European countries also face a dilemma regarding their military commitments, particularly in the context of NATO and defence spending. Trump’s first administration was a staunch advocate for increased military spending among NATO members. There is little reason to expect his second term to deviate from this.
The US may pressure European countries to surpass the NATO target of 2% of GDP for defence spending, despite countries like Poland and France already meeting or nearing this goal. This could deepen divides within Europe, especially with countries like Germany that are falling behind in spending commitments.
Trump's policy on Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine also provides uncertainty. Trump has expressed scepticism about the extent of US involvement in Ukraine, but it remains unclear how he will balance his "America First" rhetoric with the realities of a prolonged conflict in Europe.
Some of Trump’s cabinet appointments have diverged from the typical MAGA (Make America Great Again) profile. Though he has since walked back earlier criticism of Trump, Senator Marco Rubio comes from a more traditional Republican background aligned with the military-industrial complex. Appointing him as Secretary of State suggests continuity with US foreign policy status quo, especially on defence and trade.
Other appointments, such as climate change sceptic Chris Wright at the Department of Energy and the controversial choice of Mike Huckabee as ambassador to Israel, signal that Trump’s approach may pivot towards aggressive policies in the Middle East, particularly with Israel.
While the EU is pushing for stronger action on climate change, including adherence to the Paris Agreement, the Trump administration has signalled an interest in rolling back environmental commitments. Similarly, the US tech industry’s power, embodied by public figures like Elon Musk, presents challenges to the EU as it seeks to regulate emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and protect against misinformation on social media platforms.
The EU must engage in difficult discussions on how to maintain a unified approach to defence, trade and diplomacy. The growing divide between it and the US on these issues signals a need for the EU to strengthen its own institutions and find ways to assert greater sovereignty in an increasingly multipolar world — all without sacrificing its democratic values and social cohesion.