Ursula von der Leyen is entering her second term at the helm of the European Commission with a credibility problem. Her willingness to secure power by catering to ideologically opposed camps has left her distrusted by some allies and foes alike. That could complicate her ability to advance her agenda.
After a contentious delay, the European Parliament gave her new Commission a lukewarm endorsement late last month when 370 MEPs voted in favour of Von der Leyen's 26 commissioners-designate – and 282 against.
It was the narrowest margin of victory for any College of Commissioners, though it was the first since 1999 that all commissioners survived parliamentary scrutiny.
Growing divisions
Despite a deal between Von der Leyen's centre-right European People's Party, the centre-left Socialists and Democrats, and the centrist-liberal Renew Europe groups, it is unclear how much support the Commission will actually get. Left-leaning groups are already displeased that the EPP has normalised the European Conservatives and Reformists, which includes far-right members.
“What we see with Von der Leyen is heavy presidentialisation,” Sophia Russack, a researcher at the Centre for European Policy Studies, a Brussels-based policy think tank, tells The Parliament. “That is something that can be criticised for not being collegial, but her effectiveness cannot be questioned.”
When Von der Leyen began her first term in 2019, the challenge was finishing off the Brexit deal and contending with far-right forces looking to weaken the EU. Five years and a global pandemic later, she enters an even more turbulent second term. The European Parliament is more fractured, the bloc's economy is faltering, wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are raging, and an emboldened far right is redefining what it means to be "pro-EU.”
In January, Donald Trump returns to the White House, which will likely inject yet more uncertainty into the transatlantic relationship.
“Five years ago, it was a rather challenging environment, but not to this extent,” Zselyke Csaky, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, tells The Parliament.
Competitiveness vs green agendas
Von der Leyen’s agenda is extensive, ranging from safeguarding democratic values to increasing defence, bolstering EU competitiveness and hardening external borders.
Perhaps the biggest difference between the start of her first and second mandates is the reframing of climate initiatives. The European Green Deal has taken a back seat to economic issues.
Without forsaking the Green Deal entirely, Von der Leyen has pledged to launch a Clean Industrial Deal (CID) and a European Competitiveness Fund within the first 100 days of her second term.
“By making a Clean Industrial Deal, which puts the industry at the centre and not the environmental credentials, of course makes it easier to gain [right-wing] support there,” Adel El Gammal, secretary general of the European Energy Research Alliance (EERA), tells The Parliament.
Already towards the end of her first term, with farmers' protests heating up, Von der Leyen faced criticism for watering down climate commitments. Her own EPP has opposed some of the Green Deal's strongest regulations, such as phasing out the combustion engine by 2035. The centre-right group's manifesto vaguely backs the goals of the Green Deal but emphasises the role of market forces in combating climate change.
Von der Leyen largely supports the EPP view, having incorporated it into her second mandate.
“Ursula von der Leyen's credibility is in question,” Patrick ten Brink, secretary general of the European Environmental Bureau, tells The Parliament. “She still has yet to prove that she will defend her climate and environmental legacy.”
The EU does not appear on track to meet its 55 per cent reduction target by 2030. Meanwhile, the Draghi and Letta reports have underscored the need to balance green transition goals with competitiveness, arguing that sustainability must drive economic growth.
Double standards & democratic values
EU enlargement is a “core priority” for Von der Leyen's new administration, marking a shift from her first term. The Commission says the process will remain merit-based, following criticism of the previous Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement, Olivér Várhelyi, for attempting to bypass democratic conditions when advancing EU integration.
Exacerbating the enlargement push was having a Hungarian in charge of it, at a time the Commission was taking action against Hungary for rule-of-law violations.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, enlargement has taken on geopolitical significance. Both Ukraine and Moldova have been swiftly added to the list of candidate countries. Now the Commission is pledging to speed things along with pre-enlargement reviews of candidate countries.
Yet there is only so much the Commission can do on this front. Progress also depends on member states, and countries such as France and Germany have expressed reservations. They want enlargement tied to internal rule-of-law reforms.
“There’s a lot of disunity among member states,” says Csaky. “I am not very optimistic that, let's say, a treaty reform or any other bigger change will be possible in the next five years.”
The far right’s perspective on enlargement adds another layer of complexity. While not opposed as such, many in the far-right camp focus on using it as a tool to strengthen nationalist alliances, particularly in the Balkans.
Far-right parties could use the process to promote racist discourse, Csaky adds, with watchdogs warning that Trump's re-election could embolden far-right or nationalist voices in some of the candidate countries.
“The risk here is that the rule of law, the democratic criteria, is undermined,” Berta López Domènech, a policy analyst at the European Policy Centre in Brussels, tells The Parliament.
Pointing to the deportation deal Italy struck with Albania, a candidate country since 2012, López Domènech expresses concern that the enlargement process could become a transactional game.
“To some extent, the EU is sending the message that the process isn’t actually merit-based but depends on bilateral deals made between countries,” she says.
At the same time, Von der Leyen faces rule-of-law challenges inside the bloc. Critics argue that her reliance on dialogue over infringement procedures can be recognised as a failure, particularly regarding Hungary. In a last-minute political compromise, the Commission decided to unfreeze €10bn in EU funds for Hungary, just as the Hungarian economy was about to feel its impact.
The future of EU defence policy
Von der Leyen's new Commission includes the new post for defence, taken up by Andrius Kubilius, a former Lithuanian prime minister and EPP ally.
In her first 100 days of this second mandate, Von der Leyen has committed to presenting a white paper on the future of European defence. This is intended to boost co-operation between the EU and NATO, as well as to improve joint procurement, defence industries and investment.
These are hardly new issues, and while there is broad agreement on the EU's need to fend for itself, there is less alignment on how to get there. Countries like Germany and the Netherlands have opposed defence bonds proposed by France and Poland. Some far-right forces gaining traction in Brussels and in member states are more sanguine about the Russian threat, if not openly friendly to the EU's aggressive neighbour to the east.
“Until EU member states agree to act with urgency, defence policies will be held back,” Daniel Fiott, professor at the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy tells The Parliament.
With Donald Trump returning to the White House and sounding less committed to Ukraine's defence, questions remain about the EU’s ability to make up any shortfall should the US pull its support.
Trump's similar unpredictability when it comes to security commitments embedded in the traditional transatlantic relationship have also put the EU's dependence on the US in stark relief.
“We want to keep Trump committed to NATO, yet we also need to prepare to ensure European security ourselves,” Hannah Neumann, an MEP with the Greens, tells The Parliament.
Whether on defence or aspects to her agenda, Von der Leyen's new Commission faces competing interests that will put the lessons she learned during her previous mandate to the test. In trying to cater to them all, she risks stretching the EU thin.
“The nightmare scenario is that the EU starts investing in all sorts of things,” Fiott says, “and after five years we're still nowhere.”