If Donald Trump weren't the US president, Greenland's springtime elections would hardly be world news. His interest in taking the semi-autonomous territory from Denmark, however, has put new focus on its fledgling independence movement.
Independence is expected to be the key issue in Greenland’s upcoming general election, which the government must call by 6 April. Prime Minister Múte Bourup Egede, who hails from the socialist Inuit Ataqatigiit party, has said that if reelected he would aim to call for a referendum on independence.
A 2019 survey by the University of Copenhagen found that 43.5% of Greenlanders believe independence would have a “positive” or “very positive” effect on Greenland’s economy if it broke away from the Kingdom of Denmark. The same poll found over 62% would vote “yes” to independence.
“I'm not sure if the wish for independence is stronger necessarily than it was before Donald Trump started mentioning that he would take control of Greenland. But I think it has definitely forced people to relate to the question much more,” Nauja Bianco, a Danish-based Greenlander who runs her own arctic affairs consultancy, told The Parliament.
US interest in Greenland dates back to as early as the 19th century, but Trump has dramatically ramped up the rhetoric in recent weeks. Over the weekend, he reiterated his confidence that the US is "going to have it.” This week, Denmark announced a $2 billion security plan for the Arctic ahead of a visit on Tuesday by the country's prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, to Berlin, Paris and Brussels to shore up "European unity" on Greenland.
The Kingdom of Denmark has ruled Greenland for centuries, but the territory was granted Home Rule in 1979 – meaning it controls most domestic matters, while Denmark has the final word on foreign affairs – and has largely governed itself since 2009. Of the island's seven political parties, four support Greenlandic independence, including Egede’s party.
“What has been agreed upon politically is that we should work towards independence. We want to be masters in our own house,” Inuuteq Holm Olsen, head of Greenland’s representation to the EU, told The Parliament.
Still, it remains unclear what shape Greenlandic independence would take, including whether it would automatically become a member of the EU and NATO given Denmark’s membership in those bodies. Polling from 2024 by Greenland’s University of Ilisimatusarfik suggests 60% of Greenlanders would vote yes to join the EU in a referendum if Greenland were independent.
But some politicians and experts suggest collaboration with other global partners like the US and China would be in the territory’s best interest. “We need to make some agreements with other states that provide protection via security and defence agreements, but also make a plan to let us become more economically self-sufficient,” Kuno Fencker, a member of Greenland’s national parliament, told The Parliament.
The other superpower
Meanwhile, while China has been less explicit about its Greenland aims, it has directed significant energy and resources towards the territory.
Chinese investment in Greenland’s hydrocarbon and minerals sectors makes up nearly 12% of the territory’s GDP, according to a report by the US House of Representatives’ foreign affairs committee.
“The Chinese have been much, much faster and more strategic in their way of trading and investing in Greenland,” said Fencker.
With glacial ice melting and demand for raw materials soaring, Greenland's strategic relevance has made it a flash point in geopolitics. After Trump re-floated his desire to acquire Greenland in December, the Danish government announced a boost in defence spending for the territory, worth roughly €1.4 billion.
Copenhagen denies its defence package was a panicked result of Trump’s interest in Greenland. But experts say if Denmark and its European allies are unable to protect waters around the territory against encroachments by China and Russia, US demands to secure Greenland are likely to only get louder.
“I think we should see the discussion on critical raw materials with the EU and the US as part of a larger conversation on the dominance that China plays in that market,” said Olsen. “The issue has now become a matter of national security.”
Raw materials
The EU has several agreements with Greenland as part of its efforts to reduce its reliance on China and other third countries for raw materials.
In 2024, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen signed two cooperation deals valued at €94 million, boosting the EU’s access to raw materials. It has also earmarked €250 million — equal to half of the EU’s funds for its Overseas Countries and Territories (OCTs) — for Greenland, €22.5 million of which will be invested in energy and critical raw material value chains.
Greenland “needs all state investments and subsidiaries from the EU because otherwise it's never going to be feasible economically if they don't start quickly,” Fencker said of EU-Greenland agreements.
Delays working together could compel Greenland to seek partnerships elsewhere to "secure its protection through cooperation," Romain Chuffart, president of the Arctic Institute, told The Parliament.
"The mistake we sometimes make in thinking of independence is thinking that you're all alone in a sea of nothingness,” he said. "No country can be an island."
This story has been updated to more accurately reflect Chuffart's views.