His candidature for the presidential elections was yet another step for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, not just to secure his power but ultimately to claim sole reign over Turkey. In this he has followed the Russian example. Early on, he made clear that his longterm objective was to change Turkey's political system from a parliamentary democracy into a presidential system that would allow him to dominate governmental affairs and to remain chair of the justice and development party (AKP).
A target-oriented man, Erdoğan years ago organised a change in the rules for the presidential elections. For the first time now the president has been elected in a direct vote by Turkish citizens. Furthermore, citizens living abroad were allowed to cast their votes. From Germany alone, this opened the potential of 1.4 million additional votes. In his endeavour to win the election in the first ballot, Erdoğan did not flinch from abusing his power as prime minister, making use of vast state resources. The fact that firemen as public servants were required to put up Erdoğan's election posters on the facades of public buildings such as schools and mosques is just one example. Against this background, Erdoğan was able to spend six times as much on campaigning as his rivals. OSCE observers were also critical of state-run radio and television channels devoting their broadcasting time almost exclusively to prime minister Erdoğan.
"Erdoğan… needed a weak and loyal successor who is devoted to his personal political agenda and willing to abstain from power"
The success of this strategy has to be questioned, though. First of all there was a very low participation in the elections - Erdoğan failed to convince new voters. Second, the Kurdish party candidate Selahattin Demirtaş received nearly 10 per cent of votes. If his party manages to maintain this excellent result in the next parliamentary elections it might achieve the 10 per cent threshold and enter the grand national assembly. This would strengthen the parliamentary opposition massively and could endanger Erdoğan's project. To secure an absolute AKP majority in the 2015 parliamentary elections, which would be required to change the political system into a presidential one, Erdoğan's party urgently has to gain additional votes. However, Erdoğan found himself between a rock and a hard place within his own party. Having lost the new president as their original 'draft horse', the AKP was required to actually find a strong top candidate for the position of prime minister. At the same time, Erdoğan himself needed a weak and loyal successor who is devoted to his personal political agenda and willing to abstain from power. It does therefore not come as a surprise that the choice fell on former foreign minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, obviously a loyal devotee to Erdoğan, and well known to be Eurosceptic. That again puts Erdoğan in a dilemma. Given the political turmoil in Turkey's neighbouring countries, the only possible way for Turkey to maintain security and economic growth and thus the AKP's/Erdoğan's legitimacy, is closer integration with the EU. It is not a new message that a pre-condition for this is the acceptance of the fundamental European values and the will to compromise. But this will hardly be possible for a Eurosceptic Turkish prime minister. And so the cat bites her own tail. Erdoğan's dream to become the new Atatürk might soon burst.