The forthcoming European elections have a special resonance in the UK. All the old parties have at various times promised a referendum on EU membership. The most passionate pro-EU party, the Liberal democrats, have campaigned for election on the promise of a referendum. Yet their leader, and UK deputy prime minister, Nick Clegg is now saying, "This is not the right time". Or as Lewis Carroll put it in Alice in Wonderland, "Jam tomorrow. Jam yesterday. But never jam today".
The old parties are running scared of an EU referendum. UK prime minister David Cameron has inflicted years of uncertainty on British industry by promising a referendum in 2017, but this is no more than a cynical political ploy to placate his party members and activists by delaying the issue until after the 2015 general election.
So the UK independence party's (Ukip) proposition to the British electorate is simple. If you support the EU, then any of the old parties will do, because they are all determined to stay in. But if you want 'out', there's only one realistic choice: Ukip. This is the EU referendum that's so often promised but never delivered. There is now a real prospect that Ukip may win the popular vote and the largest number of UK MEPs, and if this happens, it will send a mighty message to number 10 Downing Street.
"There is now a real prospect that Ukip may win the popular vote and the largest number of UK MEPs"
The pro-Europeans say, "We need to be in the EU for jobs. In Europe, in work – 3.5 million jobs are at risk if we leave". But of course those jobs depend on trade, not membership, and the trade will continue. After we leave, we shall be the EU's largest export market, and largest net customer, in the world. My reply is this: don't tell me about the jobs we will lose when we leave, because we won't lose them. Tell me about the jobs we're losing today as a direct result of EU policies. Climate and energy policies are undermining European competitiveness, driving jobs and investment offshore and forcing households and pensioners into fuel poverty.
The euro debacle, which has damaged the economy of the eurozone, a major export market for the UK, and created unemployment, poverty and despair across southern Europe. The 'free movement' principle, which is flooding our country with excess (and frequently unskilled) labour, and putting pressure on housing, schools, and health services. And the gross overregulation of the employment market is a huge disincentive to hiring, especially for SMEs. These are the reasons we can expect more jobs when we leave, not fewer. Ask the 60 per cent of Greek young people who are unemployed.
British people are also infuriated by provisions of the European convention on human rights (ECHR), which forces perverse and damaging decisions on our courts, leaving foreign terrorists and criminals running free on our streets (and while the ECHR is not technically part of EU law, it amounts to much the same thing). In addition to the EU, British voters are concerned about immigration, though we know it's related to the EU. It's perhaps the biggest issue on our doorstep, especially in working class areas. In conjunction with energy prices, immigration is seen by voters as a separate issue, but intimately bound up with the EU.
Some commentators see Ukip as 'the conservative party in exile', but the truth is that we're taking share across the spectrum, from the Labour party and the Liberal democrats, as well as from the Tories. And we're even picking up a tranche of votes from people who haven't voted for years. We are gaining support from people who are disaffected with the old parties, but see Ukip as a fresh, new, authentic alternative. We live in exciting times. Roll on 25 May.